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MarketFastFood

110809 – Started working at 10 p.m. of 8^th August and it’s now little over 4 a.m. of 9^th August but have made up mind to write atleast few lines before going to sleep and may be by that time it would be a good morning for most of you J

- Most of you would have gone to sleep seeing Dow trade quite stably without much panic after the recent downgrade, but you all will wake up to a shock of 635 points shave off on the Dow which makes it 5.55% and the Nasdaq has seen a 7% cut overnight. The European markets also have cracked by 3% to 5% across the board and the Brazilian Bovespa has closed down by little over 8% which is part of the BRIC’s countries. The commodities also have been cracking off late due to growth concerns and the only solace world can take at this moment is from the crude prices which is now trading at $81 approx. Gold continues to glitter and one needs to be cautious also at this point of time as any corrections in the yellow metal may be sharp but will at same point of time attract more buyers.

- US 2 year Treasury is trading at a yield of just 0.26% and the 10 yr UST at 2.32 after the rally in the treasury prices over night since the rate cut by S&P has sent jitters to the market of a prolonged slowdown. S&P has meanwhile put UK and France’s AAA rating on watch for possible cuts. So by all these one thing is clear, US and EU may not stabilize in the next few years atleast and may take whole of this decade to recover back to normalcy.

On a lighter note… sms’es have been floating around stating “US rating should have been changed to XXX from AAA, signifying the present state of the investors globally”

- So should one be excessively worrying now? Does a AA+ rating of the US means it is going to default on all the payments immediately? AAA rating meant Highly Safe and AA+ rating means Very Safe! Can anyone actually explain the difference? Yes the growth is not visible and we also know that the growth in the developed nations may become a “rare thing” for next many years. It’s a global shift which is happening! US and many other countries need to lose their super power status soon so that our country Bharat can take the job! Mentioned ‘Bharat’ here since if we are the super power they should learn our countries traditional name and should tow our line! Hope we get a leader with back bone who can do this job for us. Namo is the obvious choice!

- Dow has closed at 10810 and is very close to its 200 DMA of 10740, S&P 500 is already below its 200 DMA. In short term due to the panic our markets will surely try to test lower levels. On Monday market did try to recover in the afternoon but the selling by FIIs dragged it back. The immediate support and the target for Sensex falls in the range of 15800 – 16000 points and for Nifty the same range comes around 4680 – 4750. We are trading at a valuation of just 12.99 Fwd PE as on Monday which is likely to get cheaper on Tuesday.

- Remember few weeks back India was seeing a reverse flow of FII and the same was moving into US markets in anticipation of recovery there. Now the FIIs have no other option but to return back to India as their obvious choice. China could be another time bomb for investors. India is going to pitch for a rating upgrade and Goldman Sachs has already upgraded India to overweight from underweight. The biggest problem of our country is the corruption in the power corridors and behind the scenes power.

- Small reforms can push the Sensex up even in this turmoil as while the US limps over this decade India can leap. Finance Minister is trying to cut the deficit by taking away benefits from the people which are not making headlines! This is a smart move by him but the public will suffer since things are only going to cost more for the Aam Aadmi. One benefit every Aam Aadmi should demand is the immediate reduction in the fuel prices since crude has cooled off to $81 and that can help reduce inflation so that RBI’s hyperactive rate hikes can take a break.

- So this is the time to buy. Investors in the market past 5 years should have clearly learnt this by now. India is likely to grow atleast by 6% till 2020 and though 6% may look small number to our local investors it’s a phenomenal growth rate, for the west looking towards us. One has to be careful on what he is choosing. Since though the market may go up after a point of time, not all stocks would move. So be very very selective else consult your advisor. One can seriously look at our “Most Transparent & Most Economical” product EPCS. Click Here to read the details.

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- The sufferings of the Aam Aadmi continue. The latest jolt to the common man comes in form of diesel price hike of Rs.3/- hike of Rs.2/- in kerosene prices and LPG cylinder would now cost Rs.50/- extra. On one hand the public is suffering under the pressure of high inflation and on the other, the job opportunities currently are so bad in the country that a person cannot be confident his income will rise enough to beat the inflation. The country is suffering due to the almost paralysed government. There is not one credible decision which the economists led government has taken in last many months and the effect is clearly seen in the markets.

- So what would this diesel price hike do now? The estimate is that there would be an immediate price hike in the freight rates by 5% – 7% which in number terms means a hike of anywhere between Rs.3700/- to Rs.55000+ on a round trip between Delhi and Mumbai for a nine tonne lorry. So expect inflation rates now to move up further from the existing number of almost 10% which is just not willing to come down.

- Infact one novice investor recently enquired with us if he can buy inflation! Though a serious matter, inflation remains to be the only figure which is stable!

- It’s now quite evident that the common man is going to be under further pressure and it is also known that, since the freight rates are going to move up the inflation index is also going to shift northwards. Is this inflation “Consumer Driven” ?? Absolutely No! but we don’t understand why RBI thinks so? If the central bank hikes the rates any further from the present ‘already absurd’ levels due to ‘fuel price’ driven inflation, we are sure people will completely loose the respect for the Economists.

- One economist doesn’t even speak, remains cool and calm even when rampant corruption happens right under his nose and on the other hand, other economists have been hyper active in increasing the rates even after experiencing that rate hikes alone cant bring the costs down.

- The global situation also remains critical. The PIIGS countries remain critical and there are signals that the next problem can be Russia. The silver lining is that US Fed sounded little better this time and said that the country will grow but at an slow pace.

-At one point of time India saw a huge capital outflow  since investors started assuming that the US markets look better and safer than India as growth may happen finally. The other factor was due to the deteriorating faith of the FII’s in the Indian government due to the lacklustre governance.

- We in our last article had mentioned that 17500 – 17280 remains to be very critical level for the Sensex. The same was posted even on our facebook page. You can read the article “Few Words on Market…” by clicking the ‘Print Articles’ link under ‘Categories’

- VRIDHI now has a facebook fan page and the same can be viewed at http://www.facebook.com/teamVRIDHI/ (Don’t forget to click the ‘Like’ button on the page)

- On the day of the Mauratius Tax treaty scare, the market went and hit a low of 17320 which was very close to the lower range of our mentioned level of 17280 and bounced back with a vengeance. We hope we don’t retest them again since the fundamentals at these levels look attractive. In case we break the level and trade below 17280 for few days then technically we can easily test the levels of 15950 – 15650 on Sensex.

- Most of you must be aware that VRIDHI is very active in creating awareness and is actively involved in training people in stock markets. We have just initiated a separate website www.FinancialTraining.co.in , we request you all to visit the same and give us your valuable feed back. The site is not yet complete and hence we will be happy to incorporate suggestions.

- The rally we saw on Friday was on back of value buying on account of falling crude prices. We don’t expect similar kind of moves as there are many investors waiting on the sidelines to sell and say bye to the markets. The market continues to look attractive for longer term investors and hence choose the best quality stocks.

Jai Hind

Vivek Karwa

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^CM

& INVESTMENT STRATEGIST

www.VRIDHI.co.in

www.FinancialTraining.co.in

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- MarketFastFood – 110515 – The Economist headed government has finally delivered yet another blow to the Aam Aadmi by hiking the petrol prices by an unprecedented sum. The diesel prices may also go up as per the reports by Rs.3 to Rs.4 in the coming week. This jolt to the common man has come in, just a day after poll result announcements! One can read the motives themselves.

- Government needs to kick in reforms. Now their partners have been battered out of shape in Tamil Nadu, the central government will not have any immediate threat even if the corrupt lady is arrested in the 2G scam. Hence if the congress wants to remove the corrupt tag from its name the government should not spare anyone even if he or she is their own party person.

- Big reforms are required in the oil sector.

1) Reduce the taxes! Almost half of what we pay as the fuel prices goes as taxes hence instead of appeasing people by decisions like Rs.73000 Crs farm loan waivers govt. can pass on the money to the public by way of reducing taxes on the fuel.

2) Promote usage of Gas (CNG/LNG). India atleast has some reserves of gas compared to almost nil crude. Cairn has reserves in Rajasthan but that’s not enough. Usage of CNG/LNG and even Solar Power can go well with the country in a longer term. Why shouldn’t government be subsidizing solar parks?

3) It’s high time even the diesel is deregulated. Charge personal petrol and diesel cars on a different rate (though my own family owns three cars) and charge the goods carriers at subsidized rates! Why should car owners enjor government subsidy for their joy rides?

4) Develop the local transportation system. The DMK govt in Chennai when took up the Metro rail project it was costing around Rs.4000/- Crs now when they finally decided to implement it after many years the cost escalated to around Rs.11000/- crs (don’t remember the exact numbers but they are near them)

- We are happy that people have shown maturity and smartness this time. They took the money (the money anyways belonged to public) but voted smartly against corruption and has downsized the major ruling party out of shape to third place. Amma should thank the BJP for their campaign on 2G at Delhi and the outburst of Supreme Court helped here simply sweep the state. Let’s wait and watch what she does in nxt 5 years!

- The fuel price hike is surely keep the Inflation high. The RBI on one side is fighting it by way of rate hikes. We have seen earlier also that No Policy decisions from the government will not help curtail inflation what ever rate the interest rates go to. On the contrary it would Kill the growth! Hence a recession with low commodity prices will help none.

- The results announced till now were fairly satisfactory except for a few negatives. This shows that the corporate are able to wither out the negative business environment created by the unproductive policies. Going by the trend we can expect a Sensex EPS of anywhere between Rs.1100-1200 for the fy 2012.

- The market will soon start focusing on the Monsoon and hence expect no big movement on the indices. As per the current situation we feel the maximum downside on Sensex may be 17500 and 5250 on Nifty. We also have launched probably the “Most Transparent & Most Economical” product for investing called EPCS. Click Here for Details.

- Stay in touch with us on VRIDHI fan page on Facebook which has been launched just a week ago. You will have to click on the “Like” button to get connected. Click the link: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Vridhi/143975919009495

Jai Hind

VIVEK KARWA, CFP^CM

Investment Strategist & Retirement Planner

Desk Mobile: +91 – 98405-40575

110309 – We are writing after a pretty long time hence firstly let’s see a line which we had mentioned in our last MFF article… “If Sensex does not hold this level for two days we are all set to test 17300-17000 in coming days” The fact is we touched a low of 17295.62 and have bounced almost 1000 points. The ride anyways has not been a smooth one. In last two months we have done numerous investor awareness programs and thus sometimes life just gets too hectic.

- Life also has been hectic for the government over last few months, ofcourse for their own wrong policies. Our last article had reflected our anguish over various things happening in the country, the anguish is the same that of what every Aam Aadmi of India is feeling today. Things from that point of time have not improved in any way even today. The market had greatest fear that budget session of the parliament may not run but the government finally budged and the markets turned positive.

- Markets again had great hope from the Budget. The event turned out to be a complete wash out and a non event. The biggest +ve in the budget was that there was nothing negative which could have further spooked the markets. The market and the industry as a whole had actually factored in a 2% rise in excise and service tax rates, which did not happen and thus we saw a 750 pts rally on Sensex in two days. But the euphoria has died down within few days as people have realised that not much has been done and the budget infact is negative for some sectors.

- The worst thing in the budget is levy of Tax on Health Care. There is no roadmap on how the fiscal deficit would be tackled. Read the article of Mr.Gurumurthy which we have posted on the site here. He is an emminent economist and writes after a deep research. The article will throw light on how things are not the way they are being portrayed.

- Thanks to Supreme Court on how it has been pulling up the wrongs in the country. Untill yesterday he was unknown but today everyone knows Hassan Ali Khan who is supposed to have almost looted the country with 40000 Crs just in taxes, if we are right. All Indians who has looted our mother land should be booked and only this money can actually easily bring down our fiscal deficit. Govt. know this hence let’s hope things take up the right track.

- Market again got spooked after the coalition problems in TN which thank God has been resolved. But now we need to be careful on what Ms. Mamta Banerjee may do in West Bengal. We may see similar problems to be handled by market again!

- Inflation still remains a problem, but Crude is the biggest threat to the market. $105 a barrel is just a synonym to panic! Thanks to the elections in 5 states we may not see an immediate big jump in the fuel prices. Diesel prices need to be de-regulated atleast to some extent. A mechanism is required where in Trucks and Lorry’s carrying essential items are spared and all other vehicles specially the cars and suv’s are charged market linked rates.

- Sensex & Nifty may remain subdued for rest of the month. The DOW Jones is reaching a critical resistance area os 12800-13200 and may not break it very easily. A faster growth in US and EU region will keep the flows checked into emerging markets like India. One would prefer safer destination for investing their money.

- We would soon start hearing the Advance Tax numbers and that would set the tone on how the co’s may perform in the coming financial year. The corporates in India are matured and have been doing well in all kind of scenarios. The market has punished some of the stocks out of shape and hence Sensex requires a little policy push from the government.

- Every firm word followed by action can lift the global sentiment towards India. We remain bullish on Pharma, Banking, Health Care (inspite of Service Tax levied), Auto, Education.

- We have launched a very interesting product EPCS. Our client have been demanding a product which is totally in their control but still can get the benefit of our expertise! The details can be read by clicking here.

Jai Hind

VIVEK KARWA

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^CM

& INVESTMENT STRATEGIST