110309 – We are writing after a pretty long time hence firstly let’s see a line which we had mentioned in our last MFF article… “If Sensex does not hold this level for two days we are all set to test 17300-17000 in coming days” The fact is we touched a low of 17295.62 and have bounced almost 1000 points. The ride anyways has not been a smooth one. In last two months we have done numerous investor awareness programs and thus sometimes life just gets too hectic.

- Life also has been hectic for the government over last few months, ofcourse for their own wrong policies. Our last article had reflected our anguish over various things happening in the country, the anguish is the same that of what every Aam Aadmi of India is feeling today. Things from that point of time have not improved in any way even today. The market had greatest fear that budget session of the parliament may not run but the government finally budged and the markets turned positive.

- Markets again had great hope from the Budget. The event turned out to be a complete wash out and a non event. The biggest +ve in the budget was that there was nothing negative which could have further spooked the markets. The market and the industry as a whole had actually factored in a 2% rise in excise and service tax rates, which did not happen and thus we saw a 750 pts rally on Sensex in two days. But the euphoria has died down within few days as people have realised that not much has been done and the budget infact is negative for some sectors.

- The worst thing in the budget is levy of Tax on Health Care. There is no roadmap on how the fiscal deficit would be tackled. Read the article of Mr.Gurumurthy which we have posted on the site here. He is an emminent economist and writes after a deep research. The article will throw light on how things are not the way they are being portrayed.

- Thanks to Supreme Court on how it has been pulling up the wrongs in the country. Untill yesterday he was unknown but today everyone knows Hassan Ali Khan who is supposed to have almost looted the country with 40000 Crs just in taxes, if we are right. All Indians who has looted our mother land should be booked and only this money can actually easily bring down our fiscal deficit. Govt. know this hence let’s hope things take up the right track.

- Market again got spooked after the coalition problems in TN which thank God has been resolved. But now we need to be careful on what Ms. Mamta Banerjee may do in West Bengal. We may see similar problems to be handled by market again!

- Inflation still remains a problem, but Crude is the biggest threat to the market. $105 a barrel is just a synonym to panic! Thanks to the elections in 5 states we may not see an immediate big jump in the fuel prices. Diesel prices need to be de-regulated atleast to some extent. A mechanism is required where in Trucks and Lorry’s carrying essential items are spared and all other vehicles specially the cars and suv’s are charged market linked rates.

- Sensex & Nifty may remain subdued for rest of the month. The DOW Jones is reaching a critical resistance area os 12800-13200 and may not break it very easily. A faster growth in US and EU region will keep the flows checked into emerging markets like India. One would prefer safer destination for investing their money.

- We would soon start hearing the Advance Tax numbers and that would set the tone on how the co’s may perform in the coming financial year. The corporates in India are matured and have been doing well in all kind of scenarios. The market has punished some of the stocks out of shape and hence Sensex requires a little policy push from the government.

- Every firm word followed by action can lift the global sentiment towards India. We remain bullish on Pharma, Banking, Health Care (inspite of Service Tax levied), Auto, Education.

- We have launched a very interesting product EPCS. Our client have been demanding a product which is totally in their control but still can get the benefit of our expertise! The details can be read by clicking here.

Jai Hind

VIVEK KARWA

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^CM

& INVESTMENT STRATEGIST

– This is one of the worst market we are seeing in past many years. Not because we have fallen 3000 points from the Diwali high of 21004 but because we are underperforming when most of the global markets are stable and have been moving up almost consistently. We remember mentioning a month back that that Dow should touch 12000-12200 levels very soon and it did it two days before and saw a correction for one day and is again at 12000+ right now.

- FII’s have been continuous sellers as they see that Indian administration is going through a state of total decision paralysis. Nothing much is happening in the country that can repose confidence among the investors that India provides the best growth play in the years to come. One positive news which we heard after a long time is that India’s biggest FDI POSCO has been cleared finally by the MoEF yesterday.

- India at this point of time is decoupled with rest of the world in all aspects. We are outperforming the world in all aspects, but totally in wrong and reverse direction!

1. Indian leaders are setting higher and higher bench marks in every new case of corruption.

2. The so called economists are not able to do anything about the spiraling price rise of food articles.

3. Interest rates are going up making everything costly for a common man like us. With the little economics I know, food inflation can’t be controlled by hiking interest rates!

4. Infra space is totally in doldrums. The sector requires a major boost and push if India wishes to grow at 9%+ GDP growth.

5. The culpable and corrupt have realized that nothing’s going to happen to them by mere statements like “No One Will be Spared”

6. The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. The middle class like us is just getting grinded in the mixer called Inflation! Almost everything is getting farer from the reach of middle class people, like us.

A small country like Egypt can wake up the silent administration by a “one million march” but India has more than a billion population, but most resilient one, thus being taken for a ride!

- Valuations have started looking cheap. After the POSCO approval the markets should have seen a net inflow of funds, after all it’s the largest FDI approval of all times. Mutual Funds are being smart this time! They have been buying in this fall.

- A falling market like the present one makes the bulls powerless and thus the bears just rule them. No positive news is taken in the right stride. India is not very matured when it comes to investing and hence FIIs play havoc in the F&O segment. We can bet that if you ban the F&O segment, the fall will be arrested immediately! We in association of Madras Stock Exchange (MSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) & National Stock Exchange (NSE) have been doing lots of programs in rural areas of our state so as to create awareness among the investors.

- F&O with delivery settlements have been introduced by the BSE today. Hope this gets popular among investors as it can curtail the volatility to a very large extent. Most of the new investors (actually most are traders) we interact with don’t even know why they are into the markets and how they can really create wealth from the market. It’s a long drawn process and we are doing our little bit possible.

- We last time had predicted that the second support for Sensex & Nifty comes around at 18000-17800 & 5400 respectively. Both the levels were tested numerous times today and closed marginally over them today. If Sensex does not hold this level for two days we are all set to test 17300-17000 in coming days.

- These are only technical levels but if one sees fundamentals India would continue growing more than the world with or without government support. Hence it’s an opportunity for MT-LT investors to start buying atleast in tranches, and so that retail investors do not miss the bus yet again as in earlier corrections/recoveries.

- We at VRIDHI value our customers and have come out with an interesting product which will suit all those wanting to make money by creating customized portfolios.

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*VIVEK KARWA

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^CM

& INVESTMENT STRATEGIST

VRIDHI

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VIVEK KARWA, CFP^CM

Desk Mob: +91-98405-40575

Office Mob: 93810-24365

E-Mail: vk@vridhi.co.in

www.VRIDHI.co.in

*To read about other services VRIDHI provides, click the link: http://marketfastfood.wordpress.com/vridhi/

MarketFastFood

- 110101 – We at VRIDHI Wish you all a VERY Happy, Prosperous & a Profitable New Year 2011 ahead. May the year shower wealth and prosperity in our lives. We at VRIDHI take this opportunity to thank you all for the support, appreciations, suggestions which have made us more confident and professional in approach. Your support is clearly seen from the overwhelming response which we have been receiving for our service MarketFastFood, Thanks once again to one and all.

- Pink papers today are carrying articles that Indian markets have grown/multiplied the investor’s wealth “10 Times in 10 Years” The real bull run in Indian market started somewhere around the year 2000 when the biggest project “The Golden Quadrilateral” was unveiled by the then PM Atal Behari Vajpayee. This project gave the boost to the economy and the world started focusing on India on all areas taking away the monopoly of IT. The result was that the market became more broad based and wealth creation opportunities emerged across the board.

- Markets have actually created this kind of wealth, in many cases individual stocks have created much more than what we are discussing here, but how many Indian Retail Investors actually have participated in this up move? This is a big question mark which very few can answer (infact we believe none can answer), investors who have made big in last decade should be negligible, all other investors have made nothing if you factor in the inflation index.

- The actual wealth has been made mostly by FII’s and few domestic institutions like LIC. Many of our large companies today are no longer Indian by virtue of shareholding pattern. The controlling stakes are with FII’s literally! That’s the saddest part of our bull market. Indian Retail Investors in stock market is just 1.2% of our large population. It would not be wise to fix the blame on them, the actual reason is lack of investing knowledge.

- The media is having a huge impact on our lives today. Every regional channel today has allocated a slot of atleast a hour daily, on Stock Markets. Apart from these we have large number of News Papers and Magazines. All these media coverage is doing lot of good in bringing new investors into the market. We require more such mass media coverage so that the breath of the market increases.

- The Biggest/Top mistake a new entrant commits in the market today is experimenting right away in Futures & Options! F&O is not an investment product, people need to learn that, it is never advisable for a New Retail Investor to enter this segment without even knowing abc of it!

- Any investor if, has made any money, has made only in the Cash segment. FIIs have been big time investors in the Cash market and their stakes in top companies in the country have been ever rising. Retail investors think stock market is money making machine and none of them buy any share thinking he/she is buying a business!

- We at VRIDHI have been always advocating our clients to trade only on cash segment. In most of the cases we have not even activated F&O segment hence our clients are much safer trading only in cash market! We practice what we preach and that’s why our popular product MarketFastFood does not advise clients trading on F&O segment.

- Many of you may be wondering why we are advising investors to trade more on cash at this point of time. The reason is simple we have entered in all New Decade and we firmly believe this decade would deliver more opportunities to investors, more than the previous one though it has made headlines!

- The decade 2011-2020 would be full of energy and growth and anyone really wanting to participate in this growth has to be necessarily in cash market! Hence our advise to all kinds of investors i.e. ST/MT/LT investors is to invest in cash market. We have only one advice for traders in F&O, please follow Technical’s strictly and always maintain the money management principles.

- We in Nov’09 had predicted Sensex levels of 19300-20200 for the year 2010. The prediction has come out absolutely right and the year end close for 2010 for Sensex has been at 20509, few hundred points +/- does not matter, infact as latest untill few days back Sensex was within the mentioned range. To read the Nov’09 article Click Here

- We had mentioned some stock recommendations few days back which we believe should do well in coming times, as and when the market also goes up. To read that article Click Here

- So what’s our 2011 prediction on the index? We are yet again sticking out our neck in predicting, readers need to understand that these are expectations and hence they may or may not be achieved. We expect Sensex to end the year 2011 in the range 23200-24600, a correlating figure for Nifty can come in the range 6980-7390. We expect Sensex will find Short Term support at 18800-18600 and a Medium Term support in a range 17300-17000 (These supports may be shattered if the government collapses). If you carefully note our upper range of the target it-self is hardly 20% and hence 2011 could be a difficult year in picking the right stocks to make money. We will anyhow keep updating on latest views in case our targets are broken decisively.

Jai Hind

Vivek Karwa

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^CM

& INVESTMENT STRATEGIST

Office Mobile: (+91) 98-405-405-75

MarketFastFood

- 101209 – We in our previous post had mentioned on the event/s which we fear may spook the market, and today the whole market is reeling under the pressure of the same fear! At the time when all the global markets are doing well, Indian stocks are tumbling and today was literally a bloodbath with the small cap index falling almost 6%

- Today the sentiment turned worse after Ratan Tata defended his corporate policy in reply to a Rajya Sabha MP. This comes on back of the fact that Ratan Tata, Neera Radia phone conversations are already available in the open. Being straight forward in India and doing business is very difficult, we all should acknowledge that, but that does not mean we should claim to be Mr.Clean!

- Ambani’s are another set of examples. They may be clean or may not be clean, we all may have some notion about them but they atleast don’t claim to be clean! It’s not easy to be clean as the system itself is made up like that. Unless actions are taken on corrupt politicians, corporate houses, even journalists the system will remain like this. We need a leader with a back bone!

- SEBI is busy cracking onto companies which are/may be, rigging their stock prices. The actions taken by SEBI will definitely send out some fear into such erring managements and taking the share holders on a ride. These actions will atleast make a person think 10 times before doing a wrong act in future.

- No company is going to accept that they have done something bad and all the managements be genuine or not will come out and say we are “Clean & Honest” It is again difficult to segregate between the genuine and others. We literally on every interview on National and Regional TV channels have been giving a sell call on stocks like Karuturi since the fundamentals just don’t back the stock prices. These are stocks which punturs deal into and are suitable only for speculators.

- It’s really time to doubt all those claiming to be most Honest & Clean as this credibility cannot be obtained by “self-certifying” but should be honoured by others. At MFF we like to perform, we like many others post our recommendation’s which may perform or may not perform which builds our credibility over a long term, that’s something which the readers have to judge. We never claim anything and never would do.

- As expected earlier the LIC scam has turned out to be almost a non-issue with RBI itself today mentioning that there is nothing to fear as almost all loans, (though may have been issued by taking a bribe) have been issued as per the procedures and cannot consider them to be Bad.

- There is liquidity crunch in the banking system currently which may get corrected in next few weeks. It is reasonable for some of the FII’s to book some profits during the year end.

- Market looks interesting now with a longer period horizon. Short term will be driven by the political developments on the various scams going on. We expect value buying in mid and small caps to pick up anytime now. A very good support area for Sensex comes at 18800-18600 and for Nifty at 5640-5600. These are support levels which, if broken, will take the Sensex to 17800 which has already been mentioned in one of our another article.

- The undersigned had in the recent issue of the largest circulating magazine in TamilNadu “Nanayam Vikatan” recommended 5 stocks which should be looked at seriously in this market and should be slowly accumulated on very fall. We would like to mention those stocks here and would expect some of you to join our product MarketFastFood if you make money.

- These stocks have been recommended with a view of atleast 6-12 months. The stocks are mentioned below:

1. Noida Toll Bridge CMP Rs.27.25

2. PowerGrid CMP Rs.97.45

3. Reliance Infra CMP Rs.777/-

4. Escorts Ltd CMP Rs.156/-

5. Educomp CMP Rs.516/-

   We request investors to slowly accumulate these stocks. The CMP is from bseindia.com as at 9/12/10 23:25 Hrs.

- Stay connected with MarketFastFood

Stock Specific Disclosures: We hold all the above stocks in our portfolios and have been recommending to MFF subscribers from time to time. VRIDHI‘s Stock Broking clients also may be holding them as we have been recommending these stocks to them aswell.

Jai Hind

Vivek Karwa

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^CM

& INVESTMENT STRATEGIST

Office Mobile: (+91) 98-405-405-75