+ Bad news for Afzal Guru! His hope of L.K.Advani becoming PM and hanging him so as to end his sufferings in jail has been shattered. He may now have to wait until 2014 atleast. The election results have surprised everyone including the Congress party which was circumspect till yesterday and the leaders were trying to mend the cracks between Congress, Laloo, Amar etc., Digvijay Singh must be thinking why did he say sorry to Amar yesterday as the Congress does not require Samajwadi Party’s support now.
+ The average Indian who is already under stress due to various economic factor’s was fearing a hung parliament and thus gave a thumping victory to ruling Congress as he/she did not want his/her vote to get divided across the board which may send various parties to the parliament but not a government. I feel the public did not want to take any chances and thus ruling Congress was the choice by default. The reasons for this assumption are:-
The Left has been battered out of shape as people realized if they are not weakened nothing would go right in the country, especially if they (Left) continue to have a say in next government.
If you note the voting pattern all those who broke away from UPA like Laloo, Mulayam, Paswan are today running for their pants. It is now not necessary for the Congress to give even a unreserved seat to Laloo. Pranab Mukherji’s words have come true.
Those who stayed in the UPA alliance like Trinamool, NC, NCP, DMK have been rewarded by the public as they assumed vote for them is a vote for stable government.
Politicians sitting on the fence (including the people mentioned in point no.2 above) who were assuming they would be kingmakers after the counting, and could demand huge share of flesh in the cabinet from BJP or Congress whoever comes to power have been sent packing their bags. Jayalalitha, Chandrababu Naidu, Deva Gowda, PMK, MDMK are speechless today. Infact PMK & MDMK are clean washout.
+ It is clear now that Congresses victory has been at the cost of regional parties and left. The BJP was seen as an alternative as they were winning state elections one after the other. The exit polls used to predict BJP victory during these state elections and ultimately the Congress had to pass a law banning the exit polls until all rounds are over so that congress supporters do not get influence by them. That is why we had exit polls only on 13/May after the 5th round got over.
+ BJP debacle should make the leaders introspect the reasons. They have to become perfect politicians. Congress-DMK combine distributes money to the people in TN. Dayanidhi Maran today on TV showcased Re.1/kg rice, Free color TVs, Free cooking stoves as achievements of DMK government and said they have won due to such people friendly schemes! Is this governance or bribery in kind? if not cash. I asked one BJP workers in TN that why don’t they also distribute bulk cash to voters? The reply was that they don’t get support even from the party HQ as they don’t make money. NDA didn’t make money even when they were in power. People like Narendra Modi, Vasundhara Raje don’t let anyone make money and that’s why they face frequent revolts from within their cabinet. Yes, Modi has people’s support and has performed better today but every Indian does not vote for growth they do it for freebies in form of cash or kind.
+ BJP should follow its ideology and work for growth simultaneously and should not bother about the world. Being pro-Hindu does not mean anti-other religions and this ideology is much more acceptable than the pro-other religion and anti-Hindu ideology being followed by Congress and other self certified secular parties.
+ Our bread and butter is market and hence let’s now discuss results impact on our stocks. I was assuming Sensex to cross 15000 immediately if BJP comes to power on account of there pro investment policies, divestment, reforms, Tax cuts, Swiss Bank a/c’s issue etc, but that’s not going to happen now. The Sensex may open 600+ on Monday and may move further up but then the rally would be capped as the momentum would get slow.
+ Congress government is also positive for the market especially since the baggage of Left is not going to be carried by Manmohan Singh. If Congress has the motive they can take some dramatic steps which can propel the Indian economy. Chidambaram will not be the FM as he has been advised rest from the public, even T.R.Balu is out of race this time. DMK has already demanded cabinet posts for Azhagiri, Kanimozhi, Maran all three are family members of Karunanidhi, nothing wrong about it as DMK and Congress are anyways family business concerns.
+ The point is market would be glad and the Sensex will express the happiness in form of points gained if the key ministries are under control of PM. There would be pressure from DMK and TMC for sure. Hence overall it’s +ve for the market.
+ Manmohan Singh could be a tough man to handle if he gets powerful and he has gained some power after the victory. Honest men are generally tough to handle. I feel he may continue as PM for 3+ yrs and then a chance may be given to Rahul Gandhi to gain experience. If not anyways in 2014 Rahul would be the PM candidate and BJP has to set its plan as the competition would be like playing tennis with steel ball.
+ Focus on Infra, Banking, Power Equipment stocks.
QED: Imaams issue fatwas on whom to vote, Indian Christian Association in this election issued circular in support of Congress, if this is secularism then why don’t Hindu cleric’s issue statements in support of BJP?
P.S: Comments are Welcome.