140330 – Firstly, we will be very clear to you. We are not politicians and hence the efforts will be to keep this article politics free. But since we are writing it in thick of the election season, politics may have a mention, but only where absolutely necessary. We may like it or not like it but we cannot run away from it , especially when our value of investments move with the developments taking there.
The financial year close is around the corner and the investors who were stuck in the large cap stocks have recovered a sizeable part of their paper losses. Those stuck in the midcap and the smallcap stocks have still a long way to go.
The market has consistently moved upwards, after the four state election results backed by a certain wave. Those denying it, chant it atleast 1000 times a day, but still there is no wave as such for them. #IndianStockMarkets expects a strong #BJP led #Opposition led #Modi led government taking over at the center which can bring the economy back on track by ending the policy paralysis seen in the last 3+ years. Hence 16/May/2014 may be a Make or Break day for the markets.
Whatever may be the reason for the upmove, we at VRIDHI since very long, much prior to the state elections have been saying that the #Sensex may hit the 22000-22500 levels (you can read the previous articles under the MarketFastFood and PrintArticles categories).
Our prediction was in contrary to most analysts, who were advising investors to stay away from markets. Sensex moved absolutely as per the expectations and had a good struggle crossing the 22000 mark and now is between our mentioned rage of 22000-22500 levels. See the picture below.
So having reached the above levels what should one do? Though we are overall bullish on the markets, the primary trend remains to be bullish, one thing’s very clear… the time of easy money has run out, and those wanting to earn from here will have to tread cautiously as there may be good amount of volatility, sector rotations and stock specific moves. Hence either do a good homework before buying anything or seek professional help from people like us at VRIDHI.
The short term focus of the markets will be only on the politics front. The market will move only on three type of results expectations 1.BJP led NDA loosing. 2.NDA having an average win and forming govt. with support from others. 3.A Strong NDA and Modi becoming the PM. The market might move differently in each situation, which we will discuss in next write up.
The market is focusing only on NDA since it is the only formation which has declared a PM candidate and Modi alone is talking about Development. All others seem to be fighting elections not for their win but to for Modi’s defeat. Everyone else wants a hung parliament so that a miracle can happen and they can dream of becoming PM.
Market wants development to happen, the country wants development. Only then we can dream of becoming super power as per the dreams of Abdul Kalam. We as a country have huge potential but literally have wasted last few years doing nothing. High inflation, Rupee depreciation, High interest rates, Low growth, High fiscal deficit, Bad external affairs, Weird tax notices etc have made everyone’s life miserable.
The markets have started rallying since FII’s have started coming in expecting all these to change, and thus we may see volatility based on the results.
But markets don’t move only on election results, in the long term they finally have to move based on company performance and fundamentals and hence dips should be used to buy more into portfolios. Any cut in interest rates will see more foreign funds coming into the country. Immediately after elections we will start focusing on Monsoon.
Market is likely to keep us busy… very busy for next 45 days. We along with politics will have Quarterly and Annual results of all companies coming in. We like Banking sector since long and can expect a move of 20% to 30% move on the Bankex from the present levels of 14585 over next 18 months.
Hence we remain bullish, but with caution right now.
We wish to see each investor, who is coming to create wealth in the market to make money! This does not apply to traders but those wanting to create wealth and beat the inflation Stay connected with us through various means. Click the link for all modes possible: https://vridhi.co.in/2013/07/15/stay-connected-with-vridhi/
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