Politics can also be named among the toughest profession’s a person can pursue. Political careers can be made or destroyed overnight. After winning Lok Sabha polls in May’2014, BJP led by PM Narendra Modi ji won 5 more states one after the other. Then came Delhi polls, Delhi defeat was more of a strategy than defeat.
But Bihar was very critical. A victory of the ruling coalition at centre would have been a morale booster for the Economic and Investment climate. We all have seen how the opposition with its evil design and motives crippled the functioning of the last session of parliament for frivolous reasons. Iam terming the reasons as frivolous, since no one even bothered to file a FIR or register a case against whom the opposition was protesting. If they were not worth even for a FIR then why hold parliament to ransom for such silly things?
Generally oppositions become hindrance to the governments when big issues erupt or huge propriety issues emerge against the government. In normal circumstances governments are not let to perform in the final stages of the term. But this time the government was disturbed in the very first year. The evil design was not to let any bills pass so that the growth does not come back and people should soon start questioning where are the so called Acche Din?
It’s ok for them, if the country has to suffer in the process. Most of the media and so called liberal society has been speaking against the government since their funding through several organisations has stopped now. Most of them have come under the scanner of FCRA and Money Laundering acts.
Hence anti government agenda was continuously run on the main stream media for last three months keeping Bihar in mind. The coming together of all enemies to fight one party in Bihar proves the point.
Now the question is will Bihar get a stable government? Iam sure Nitish Kumar ji’s life as CM with support of Modi ji would have been more peaceful than the nightmare’s he may now have to face with the support of stronger Lalu Prasad ji, who also has more number of seats than him. Bihar seem to have voted for caste system than for development.
So what does the future hold for Indian Economy and Indian Stock Markets? The latest news is that the Stock Exchanges have enhanced the risk management systems for Monday’s opening. The drubbing of NDA in Bihar is supposed to have a negative effect tomorrow. Analysts are negative, some of them are even pledging for a 10% gap down. Nonsense! Some of these analysts are doing similar job in markets what some presstitute’s have been doing in political arena.
So what can happen?
Victories and Defeats in politics is never permanent. Strong BJP never imagined it may lose and Lalu was desperate to revive his party’s future which had almost died totally. In India elections happen almost every year and not that the then ruling government at centre always won all assembly elections. Yes, I agree that opposition will get more aggressive and may try to cause even more hindrances.
But then if they continue to stop bills like GST, the tide may turn against them in future elections. People can be stupid in one or two elections but they cannot be fooled forever. The government requires numbers in Rajya Sabha to push the Development and the Reforms agenda. The Rajya Sabha mathematics is being used to block all the work the democratically elected government wants to pursue.
The Bihar defeat is a sentiment loss, but then the ruling government loses just 2 RS seats. They will anyways be gaining from the other states they had won in last 15 months. Just 2 seats loss in RS will not lead to very deep cut in Sensex or Nifty.
The motor mouths who were providing fuel to the media and opposition may have to get silent now, or they may be silenced now. Either of the things happening will be good for the country. The PM, who has been working for 18 hours a day may get even more aggressive now and the government may push the reforms agenda more aggressively.
Lot of things can be done by the government with the executive powers they have, not depending on the tyranny of the RS hurdle creators. For example Railways alone is planning to invest over 5 lakh crores in next 5 years! The investment climate can still be pushed ahead with more focus on Make In India project. We have already seen that many companies have already taken the initial steps to start manufacturing in India.
We at VRIDHI feel that a BJP defeat is already factored in the markets. Except one Exit Poll all of them showed what was feared today. We agree that such bad defeat was not predicted hence we may see a cut of 2-4% on Monday. A week later the market will forget this event totally and would start again focussing on Growth, Economics, Development, Reforms and Earnings. Infact our PM has a big event lined up in London this week itself and 60000+ people are likely to attend it. This will send some confidence to the global investor’s community and will surely unnerve opponents here.
We thought Bihar may give Diwali Gift to the investors today. We would have seen a sentiment boost in case NDA won. But then as we said mentioned earlier, the defeat was factored in and hence, in case a panic sets in tomorrow, use the opportunity to Buy and Gift yourself a Diwali Bonanza. We will not be surprised if a recovery is seen and the Bears are squeezed during the day.
Not mentioning any levels or numbers here for tomorrow since the market will be sentiment driven and all logics will be sidelined. You can stay connect with our fb page: www.Facebook.com/teamVRIDHI/ for updates and also connect with me on www.Facebook.com/VKarwa/ for all types of updates and fun included.
We at VRIDHI wish you all a VERY Happy and Prosperous Deepawali. God will surely give you all strength to Sell Evils of your portfolio and Buy stocks which will bring Goddess Lakshmi knocking your doors.
Always at Investors Service
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