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Before everything else, let me first, Wish You all a Very Happy Deepavali and a Prosperous New Year Samvat 2073. May we all find energy to achieve all that we dream in the ensuing year. Also, hope the New Year marginalises and brings to justice all those speaking and acting against our great country.
While some so called ‘Liberals and Seculars’ find problems with Diwali, even Malaysia is celebrating the festival of lights with us, have a look at the arrangements at airport there. There are many other countries joining us in our celebrations.
Now let’s discuss what can happen to our investments in the ensuing year and how one should be looking at future. In the recent video we had mentioned that the markets may remain volatile and may see a downward target of 27500 – 27300 at max but with upward bias. Markets actually saw a low of just few points below 27500 and then recovered back to where we are today. The volatility should continue and the danger clouds would gather only if we break 27300 levels.
Can the Sensex break below 27300? There are many factors looming above the markets right now and hence can happen. And if that happens we have chances of flirting with 26300 +/- 200 points, though the chances of that happening looks remote to us, particularly since out Target.2 for 2016 is still open, keep in mind we had already achieved Target.1 recently. Please read the Jan’2016 post.
To keep this post short, let me discuss 4 major events quickly which will affect our markets further for some more time to come. All other factors you can think of are either under control or even favouring the market.
The first major factor is Earnings Growth:
The results announced till now in this quarter show that the earnings are on verge of recovery. Though they have shown better performance in percentage terms, many of them are due to low base effect of last year. We need to keep in mind, the whole country was suffering from 2009 till 2015 and things have started showing signs of improvement in 2016.
But not to worry, overall earnings matter just for the Index level movements and market trend in general. There are many Individual Stocks which would outperform over next few years! We need to be stock specific and choose right companies and hold them for next few quarters.
Next is the GST:
Government seems to be serious and is moving at aggressive speed to get it implemented in 2017. There are lot of views, news, opinions and rumours floating. No point discussing them since the final thing may be different. Hence wait and expect good days once GST is in place.
Third factor is America Increasing Interest Rates in December:
Even if it happens, it may be just 0.25% and they may keep quite at least for 6 – 12 months post that. I believe the chances are just 50:50 hence nothing to worry much.
The last factor would be Donald Trump winning the US elections:
Forget America, if you seriously ask yourself who would be better for India? Donald or Hillary? If you reply honestly the answer would be Donald Trump. Keep aside the controversies, even Hillary has many with her, as I write this, FBI has reopened her case on the email scam.
Huge section of media and sickulars in American are targeting Donald Trump. The trend is similar to India where the current Prime Minister is questioned even for wind not blowing!
Who would win is not in our hands, Donald would be better for India, anyways who ever wins India will engage with the new president constructively, I’am sure on that.
Resolve to Invest this Diwali for long term, you can keep making changes to your portfolio as and when required but make sure your money remains invested and you don’t withdraw it for silly purposes. Specially for Buying a New Car!
We are celebrating and enjoying safely since our Soldiers are guarding us at the borders by sacrificing their family time and risking their lives for us. We need to salute them.
Whole India is sending their #Sandesh2Soldiers on this festive eve. We at VRIDHI would like to do our bit for our soldiers, we hereby announce that henceforth we would be charging just 25% of our normal charges for all ‘serving personnel of Indian Armed Forces’ We promise we will keep this 25% as our permanent tribute for our armed forces. You can let know about this to any soldier you know.
Wishing you all a Happy Deepavali yet again and keep in touch with us through email alerts, facebook and youtube.
Thanks and Regards
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will stay connected ,watch comments and observations. YKU. B.R.Nair