We at VRIDHI wish you all a Very Happy Deepavali, may the Samvat 2074 bring in more prosperity and India emerges stronger.
In the previous MarketFastFood article we had mentioned that Investors think markets can only go up, meaning they are currently thinking that markets cannot come down. You can read the article by clicking here. Fact of the matter is, within few days of posting that article, the markets did correct by almost 4-5% and further as mentioned in the article again, market also recovered very fast and we all know where it is today. We are hovering at around 32600 today.
Performance wise, last Diwali to this Diwali has been splendid. Diwali last year was on 30-10-2016 and the Sensex was at 27900 approx. and today it is at 32584.
Very soon after Diwali last year, the government announced Remonetisation of Rs.500/- and Rs.1000/- notes on 8-Nov.
The political scenario post Nov-8 has been too hot with opposition trying to criticise the move. Fact is, they themselves do not know if it’s needed for the country or not. Any person with little common sense would know that when around 85% of the currency in circulation was of high value, and further 85% of that high value never entered any bank account is enough proof that most was in black.
Ask this to any Economist, Fund Manager or an Analyst and they would confirm this. Don’t think why our former PM opposed it, he needs to remain in good books of his leaders, period. Black money in system leads to high inflation in real assets and that’s why Real Estate became unaffordable to Indians.
Remonetisation was needed to formalise the economy and remove the mess of high value currency. We feel the Rs.2000/- notes won’t stay for long. Further Remonetisation was also required before the roll out of GST.
The only disappointment was that 99% notes came back. Many thought a lakh crore may not come back. But then thinking in hindsight, why should one throw away his money particularly when a declaration scheme was also announced. Post that, we have seen frequent raids, investigations, clampdown on shell companies etc etc. All these are by-products of Remonetisation.
Now the GST, Congress tried it hard to roll it since they knew it is going to benefit the country in long term and hence take the credit for it. But they failed to convince their own CMs and allies and hence failed. The present government will get the credit after 12-18 months and until then many people will continue cursing it and many optimists like me are hopeful that the present confusion will be a history soon.
When VAT was rolled out we saw similar pattern. GST is much bigger and hence more teething trouble. They naysayers, the pessimists will rejoice on one or two bad economic numbers but take it from me the country will benefit over long term. GST expects people to do business legally and those used to without bill business are shouting the most. Country is changing, instead of crying, change your business model else you will be wiped off.
Hence we need to ignore the initial teething problems and only then you can be a partner in the countries progress.
You can call 99% cash coming back into the bank as positive too. All this money is now legally getting invested in Financial Products. Earlier people used to avoid since it was all cash, now having ‘adjusted’ the amounts they are getting channelized. With falling interest rates and real estate prices under check due to remonetisation and other factors, people are choosing Equity Markets and Mutual Funds.
Are the valuations costly? No Brainer question, they valuations are sky high. Hence you need to be cautious and invest only with assistance of a Financial Planner.
Market is giving opportunity to all type of investors. Fixed Deposit investors can get better returns with reasonable amount of safety through proper planning. Long Term investors can spot value buys.
Let the pessimists continue with their negativity, just believe in India story and you would not regret. Once again, wishing you all a Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year.
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VIVEK KARWA, CFPCM
Financial Planner & Wealth Creator