Pre-Diwali Sale

190915 – In my previous three posts, I have been mentioning that the so-called slowdown currently is due to the cleansing process by the government and how every defaulter is being taken to task. You should read them again so that we are on the same page of thinking. I am clear in my theory and firmly believe in it.

The opposition and media are making too much noise as if the world is going to come to an end. The rant by the opposition is understandable; they have no other choice. An old video was doing rounds on social media of a former finance minister saying the same words which the current finance minister is saying that the slowdown is temporary and will pick up.

No doubts there is a slowdown, no denying on it, no doubt the finance minister behaved amateurishly in the beginning, no doubt the government was also in denial on the slowdown, but then the realisation happened. The government is working with front foot forward in announcing various measures.

In the previous article, I also said: ‘The three pain points are Liquidity Crisis, Automobile, and Housing Sector.’ Now check the steps announced, including those of yesterday everything revolves around these three pain points.

These are issues as said earlier, also due to the cleaning process and will slowly subside. The Macroeconomic parameters are strong. Except for one or two factors, India is quite strong compared to the world. Hence the economy and the Indian Stock Markets both will bounce substantially going forward.

Media is making noise since Bad News Sells! How many times do you find headlines of a newspaper to be positive? As a person who does so many television shows on markets and economy, I know the mentality in and out.

The sad part is that people forward negative news and videos on WhatsApp without thinking even once. In the last 15 days video of an official spokesperson of an opposition party has been circulating on WhatsApp and Internet. His political lineation is clear once you visit his profile. In the video, he presents himself as an economist and then gives absurd logic and ideas.

People should question his biased logic once the predictions fail, which will surely fail. Listen to the words as though coming from a politician which they are. Scaring people is not appreciated.

While all these are happening, let’s check these few things:

BSE Auto Index at 16541, BSE Bankex 31681, BSE Consumer Durables 23587, BSE Capital Goods 17422, FMCG 8368, Metals 9093, BSE 500 14351

All the above Indexes on Friday have closed at a 1 to 2-month highs! Even the BSE PSU Index at 6658 is at a recent high!

Sends you a message? Some more:

RBI has been cutting rates

Govt has been announcing positive steps.

ECS has cut rates

Statement by Apollo Tyres: Automotive industry reaching the end of the downward cycle, demand uptick ahead.

Recent IIP numbers are good, and the inflation remains under control.

And the biggest news is that the FII’s and FPI’s have started buying. Buying may not be huge, but the unabated selling has stopped! Read here: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/fpis-turn-net-buyers-infuse-rs-1841cr-in-first-half-of-september-4437011.html

We have been cruising through bad times, almost for two years. All the previous good things were also wiped off during this phase. But the things looks like having settled right now. We are at valuations which cannot get much cheaper from here. One of the articles recently I had mentioned that we are at the lower end of the U curve and I maintain so.

Will keep you all updated on the happenings. Until then you can figure out how you want to use this pre Diwali sale.

I am initiating a new thing: I am creating Two WhatsApp group for VRIDHI which you can join by clicking any of the below links:

VRIDHI WA Group-1: https://chat.whatsapp.com/HAKdqAu1vRb0Pw80tLpM0G

VRIDHI WA Group-2: https://chat.whatsapp.com/JaDPPgm8w94HhXB6DAAyCo

*Not sure if the idea will work or not, but no harm in attempting. Will close the groups if the attempt fails.

*The idea is to keep you updated, and don’t worry, no junk or blind forwards.

*Join any one group only since the postings and updates will be same in both.

*Financial Advisors, Brokers, Agents etc, please don’t join, I will have to remove you.

*Those thinking ‘Privacy’ take a call, since there is nothing called privacy now-a-days.

*You are free to join or exit the group, I don’t feel bad for silly things.

Also: I request you all to go to the below link and click subscribe on my YouTube channel. It sometimes becomes easy to record a video and post instead of writing the whole thing. There are all type of people, some like reading and some listening. Click Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/c/VivekKarwaIndia/

Also, When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on the phone, while scrolling up and down, you will find the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all over social media details.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

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