Modi 2.0

190526 – Before we start, we would like to congratulate Mr. #NarendraModi for getting the second term as the PM and that too with thumping majority. We also wish the people of India for having decided the next government with clarity.

Any government with dependence on regional parties would have been unstable. India is in a time where a majority government can take decisions much faster and there would be no vested interests to pull the government down.

It is first time probably in the history of India that a government has been voted back to power with larger vote share and seat share. It’s a world record, this is the first government which has been voted back to power after implementing GST. All other governments in the world which brought in GST were thrown out.

With 303 seats under its kitty, the new government will kick start on day one of taking the oath. In 2014 Modi was new to Delhi and it took him almost 6 months just to understand the 11 am a culture of Delhi. Also, the bureaucracy was more loyal to the earlier establishment.

The above problems are not present this time and the work would start from day one. The same will be taken very positively by the markets. Though we saw some movements, we did not see upper or lower circuits since the outcome was somewhat factored in already.

The year 2018 has been very bad for the markets particularly for the Mid and Small Cap segments. Due to various factors, the stock prices had corrected 50-70% and most Large Caps too corrected up to 30% resulting in losses across the board in both equity portfolios and mutual fund portfolios.

A lot of newcomers entered the markets in 2017 and 2018 and now are assuming that they made a mistake. They also feel that while the Sensex and Nifty are at all-time highs, why are their investments not moving up?

Fact is this: Firstly, literally only five heavyweight companies in Sensex and Nifty have moved up, other stocks have either moved down or remained flat. Hence, the index may be at high and the portfolios down, but that doesn’t mean you should call it quits. After the election results, there are all possibilities that Index may remain flat and the stocks move. Secondly, Please don’t judge the investments on 3-5 years basis. Equities can give you five-year returns in a single year and make you lose patience in the first four years. You need to invest for absolute long term.

The best thing is to do your Financial Planning and start investing. This can keep you disciplined during the ups and downs. Keep in mind, no one in this world has become rich by investing in Fixed Deposits alone. Even Real Estate will remain subdued for the next five years.

We believe that the markets will be buoyant now. Single-party majority government will take actions faster.

I expect these things in the first half of the term:

1. A 100 days plan will be announced.

2. The full budget may be presented with Bigger Tax breaks for people.

3. Draft of Direct Tax Code will be ready by July.

4. IBC will be strengthened.

5. More spending on Social Reforms.

6. Spending on Infrastructure may increase.

7. Govt and RBI will now push liquidity into the system.

8. Big projects like River Linking may be announced.

Also, since the clarity has now emerged, the corporates will start their investments in India. Many of the companies were just waiting for the results. For example, around 200 companies from China alone were waiting for results to shift base to India.

We at VRIDHI will start the process of making the changes required to suit the portfolios for the New India. We also have been under pressure in the last one year due to bad markets and are now hopeful and delighted that better days for India are in sight. Will now be working for best results. India’s time has come.

Global problems will continue to cloud the markets, but the local opportunities overweigh them. India’s relationship with global leaders is extremely favourable currently which will also help our country.

We will continue updating over the next few weeks as the structure of the new government gets clear. Stay connected with us and work for better tomorrow.

When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on phone then scroll to the bottom for the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

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Essel Dent and Debt Mutual Fund Woes

Essel Group Debt payment delays have affected HDFC and Kotak Mutual Funds, should you panic?

190411 – We at VRIDHI, in the last few hours, have been receiving some frantic calls from the investors in Essel Mutual Fund, HDFC Mutual Fund and Kotak Mutual Fund regarding the news reports across business newspapers that due to the Essel Debt recast delay, Kotak Mutual Fund may delay the payments of their FMP’s pertaining to Essel Debt and HDFC Mutual Fund may roll over certain of their FMP’s until they receive the money back.

The most amusing thing is that even certain Advisors have called in to check on what may happen so that the same can be informed to their clients. Hence this article to clarify certain things which are spreading negative news unwarranted.

Firstly, Investors in Essel Mutual Fund:

– Please understand that Essel MF and each of the other Essel companies are independent entities. None of the articles in the newspapers mentions that there is any problem in Essel Mutual Fund.

– If you go through the factsheet of Essel Mutual Fund, you will find that they have ‘ZERO’ exposure to any of the Essel companies and hence the investors in their funds don’t have to bother about their money.

– The fund house is looking to sell itself and is close to a deal. Hence, investors need to not worry at all. The Fund House is Going Strong.

– Moreover, the problem is not related to any of the equity funds so please relax, and don’t go just by name and run over it. Recently a problem in a company in America crashed down shares of another similarly named company, go check that. It would be a fun read.

Secondly, Investors in HDFC and Kotak Mutual Funds:

– Please note that the problem is only in few of their FMP’s which have certain exposure to the Zee group. The debt recast steps are under process and may get resolved. The moment money comes in, the fund houses will repay. The worst case situation of no money received doesn’t affect the entire corpus, only to the extent of the exposure.

– The fund houses will take all efforts to get the money soon. Zee group is under talks with various companies to buy stakes in their group.

– Except for the investors in these few FMP’s, other investors have nothing to worry at all. The Equity Funds again have nothing to do with this delay, the shares of the Zee group companies have already fallen and hence the shareholding values will also get least affected.

– Hence both HDFC and Kotak Fund Houses are Going Strong and these are minor blips which will get sorted out soon.

NONE of the VRIDHI clients has any exposure to the above-affected Funds!

In case of more queries, you can WhatsApp us on +91 9551110505

Some Fundamental Discussion:

The above problems arise mainly due to both Clients and Advisors chasing returns and none of them analysing the kind of risks the funds are taking to achieve the Extra Returns.

It has happened to us also many times: Investors call us and say: Sir we invested in X Large, Mid or Small Cap fund but the peer Y Large, Mid or Small Cap fund is giving better returns!

By God’s grace, we have never succumbed to these arguments and shifted the funds of clients just because another fund has delivered better returns. Some times clients even withdraw money to chase better returns and guess what? They get stuck in situations like today and then praise us for our wisdom! Too Late!

We at VRIDHI have avoided this since we generally analyse the holdings of the funds and also have regular interactions with the fund management teams.

Recently SEBI has recategorized funds into Large, Mid and Small Cap funds with clear definitions.

Let me still guarantee you all… most of the Large Cap Funds will also hold Non-Large Cap Stocks, Most of the Mid Cap Funds will also hold Non-Mid Cap Stocks, and Most of the Small Cap Funds will also hold Non-Small Cap Stocks.

So each of the funds in the above categories will still have good variations.

Hence, don’t chase the returns alone, take advisors help. Saving small fees and losing capital is never a good idea. J

When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on phone then scroll to the bottom for the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

+91 9381024365

Roller Coaster Ride Continues

190217 – Firstly, We pray for all 44 souls of our Indian Army martyred in the Pulwama terror strike. May all the souls attain Shanti. Om Shanti.

Such a cowardice act on part of Pakistan backed terrorists. They feel they will get back Kashmir by doing all these. Fact is it’s getting tougher for them by the day.

Sensex went to highs of 37172 on 7-2-2018, the movement on the upside was as expected since I was sounding bullish on the Index in the previous two to three posts continuously. Post the highs, the market has corrected a bit more than expected and has closed at 35809 as on 15-2-2018, that’s almost 4% fall within a few days.

Sensex even at these levels looks quite decent. Sensex is actually giving a wrong picture to everyone. Fact is though Sensex is at its highs, most portfolios are in red. I should say 100% of the portfolios in the last one year has turned negative, including the Mutual Fund portfolios. Including ours, which we recommend. That’s the truth. The only difference between our portfolios and that of a naive investor will be seen during the recovery of Mid and Small cap companies.

Our portfolios will recover much faster than others. Even our MarketFastFood subscribers will see a faster recovery. In fact, we have added just one company in MFF past one month.

The broader market has been on a slide. Sensex and Nifty are up based on just a few stocks. They are today commonly called the HRITHIK stocks! No, not that Hrithik Roshan the actor owns them, just that a new word has been coined in the market. HRITHIK means:

HDFC, Reliance, Infosys, TCS, HUL, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank.

An investor can now ask why shouldn’t I buy only the Hrithik stocks and beat the market? Logically it’s a yes, you can, but will you take risk of investing only in 7 companies of which 3 are from one sector alone? If these stocks falter then life can become miserable. Hence, an advisor like me would never risk putting money in such stocks and few of them are steeply valued today!

The broader market is actually quite cheap now. Your portfolio may be in minus, still, this is the time to add more. Those who fear now will later regret missing the chance. This is not the first cycle in the market. It has happened many times in the past. Not that India is doing bad, not that Indian companies are going to close down tomorrow, not that we have bad government.

Yes, in the short term there will be heightened volatility due to elections coming up. Until then keep adding slowly. Don’t fear, this phase shall too pass.

We may get even better chances in the next few weeks/months. Pakistan has this time crossed its limits. The Indian government cannot simply let this pass. Action has already started. I don’t think there will be a full-fledged war, but things like surgical strikes, or strikes in the PoK area cannot be ruled out. Any panic situation should be used. Pakistan is bankrupt. They cannot face India. India has had huge diplomatic success in the last few years which has cornered Pakistan on all fronts.

India has already taken few steps over the weekend. These will make India emerge stronger. No country would dare to openly support Pakistan over India.

In case you need our support feel free to WhatsApp us on our office number. My desk number is 93810-24365. We at VRIDHI are always happy to hear from you. Feel free to get in touch with us.

When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on phone then scroll to the bottom for the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

Budget 2019

#Budget2019

Do watch the video: Also SUBSCRIBE the YouTube for regular updates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXsUtQ5R1Vw

Update from another source: (source name not known):

HIGHLIGHTS OF BUDGET 2019

Tax
1.    Within 2 years, Tax assessment will be done electronically
2.    IT returns processing in just 24 hours
3.    Minimum 14% revenue of GST to states by Central Govt.
4.    Custom duty has abolished from 36 Capital Goods
5.    Recommendations to GST council for reducing GST rates for home buyers
6.    Full Tax rebate upto 5 lakh annual income after all deductions.
7.    Standard deduction has increase from 40000 to 50000
8.    Exempt on tax on second self-occupied house
9.    Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194A has increased from 10000 to 40000
10.    Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194I has increased from 180000 to 240000
11.    Capital tax Benefit u/s 54 has increased from investment in one residential house to two residential houses.
12.    Benefit u/s 80IB has increased to one more year i.e. 2020
13.    Benefit has given to unsold inventory has increased to one year to two years.


Other Areas

14.    State share has increased to 42%
15.    PCA restriction has abolished from 3 major banks
16.    2 lakhs seats will increase for the reservation of 10%
17.    60000 crores for manrega
18.    1.7 Lakh crore to ensure food for all
19.    22nd AIIMS has to be opened in Haryana
20.    Approval has to be given to PM Kisan Yojana
21.    Rs. 6000 per annum has to be given to every farmer having upto 2 hectare land. Applicable from Sept 2018. Amount will be transferred in 3 installments
22.    National kamdhenu ayog for cows. Rs. 750 crores for National Gokul Mission
23.    2% interest subvention for farmers pursuing animal husbandry and also create separate department for fisheries.
24.    2% interest subvention for farmers affected by natural calamities and additional 3% interest subvention for timely payment.
25.    Tax free Gratuity limit increase to 20 Lakhs from 10 Lakhs
26.    Bonus will be applicable for workers earning 21000 monthly
27.    The scheme, called Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Mandhan, will provide assured monthly pension of Rs. 3,000 with contribution of Rs. 100 per month for workers in unorganized sector after 60 years of age.
28.    Our government delivered 6 crores free LPG connections under Ujjawala scheme
29.    2% interest relief for MSME GST registered person
30.    26 weeks of Maternity Leaves to empower the women
31.    More than 3 Lakhs crores for defence
32.    One lakh digital villages in next 5 years
33.    Single window for approval of India film makers

Tax Saving ELSS

With Financial Year coming to an end, it is time you start planning for your Tax Saving immediately. You can save up to Rs. 45000/- in Tax alone based on the Tax Slab you are in. Keep in mind: Money Saved is Money Earned.

Equity Linked Savings Scheme (ELSS):

ELSS is a mutual fund scheme which provides deduction/tax benefit under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act, up to Rs.1,50,000 per annum. There is no upper limit to investing in ELSS.

ELSS invests in diversified equity funds. Returns from ELSS are market linked which aims at providing capital appreciation over 3 year period.

It is the best available scheme which offers higher returns combined with tax benefits for a lock-in period of just 3 years. It comes with least lock-in period when compared to Tax Saving Fixed Deposits or Public Provident Fund.

Both Individuals and HUFs can invest in ELSS.

Investment under the scheme can be continued even after 3 years.

Even though the risk involved in investing in ELSS is higher than Bank Fixed Deposit or Company Fixed Deposit or Public Provident Fund, the returns have always been much higher ranging from 12% to 18%

Investment can be made either in a lump sum or through a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).

If the investment is made through SIP, each investment/instalment should complete 3 years before it can be redeemed.

ELSS is an ideal scheme for long term wealth creation.

Invest in ELSS with VRIDHI:

We at VRIDHI analyse all Mutual Fund schemes on a continuous basis to help our investors choose the right schemes. We also have regular intereactions with the Mutual Fund company officials and Fund Managers and express our opinions and concerns which may affect the investors.

When you invest with VRIDHI, you can leave the tracking job to us and focus on your own work.

Click Here to contact us.

Click Here for our Social Media links.

Roller Coaster Ride Ahead

190127 – Volatility has set in as expected. Again, like before, the same is invisible in the indexes, but when you dig deep into the market you find that enough damage has been done in the past 10 days. There was some recovery which tried coming in, and some of that has again been taken off. Justified! The market climbing by the stairs would be better, an investor should not expect an escalator type of recovery, that’s always dangerous.

We at VRIDHI have been trying to stay connected with you all on various platforms, would like to mention a few of them before proceeding, would request you to join them all.

1. You can follow this website by subscribing for email alerts. Scroll down to the bottom if you are reading it on phone. If you open the website on a system then you would find the subscribe option on the left-hand side.

2. Subscribe to the YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/VivekKarwaIndia/

3. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/teamVRIDHI

4. Twitter: https://twitter.com/vivekkarwa (being personal twitter, you will find non-finance posts too)

Now coming back to the markets:

I, still feel we would do better in 2019 than 2018. Leave the minor blips, I guess, in the previous post I had mentioned that my gut feeling says we may hit a new high before the Lok Sabha elections. Some people sent me counters, people don’t understand! I am in competition with none, and nor do I predict this short term. It’s just a gut feeling which may turn out to be real or may fail. If it fails, so be it.

Some people have been sending me WhatsApp messages and Facebook messages that America may crash and take India along with it. The scenario is totally different. Dow Jones on 3/12/2018 hit a high of 25980, it saw a steep correction and hit a low of 21712 on 26/12/2018, that’s 16% correction in a short span of time. The latest high on Dow is 24750 achieved on 18/1/2019 which again is a massive recovery in short span of time.

We did not move with Dow! India is adjusting to her own scenario.

What’s the lesson? We have to move very selectively for the next few months. The fact of the matter is that the valuations are cheaper now, and yet I am not able to freeze on the investment ideas easily. Meaning, a normal investors life would be much more difficult. We at VRIDHI will keep doing the hard work on behalf of you. Just stay connected with us. In the previous post, I had recommended three ideas, and all of them are stable even today. Read them by Clicking Here.

Also in the previous post to the previous, I had mentioned that we had recommended MGL to MarketFastFood clients and you know what? The stock is still stable. Don’t take this as a Buy recommendation since we may exit without any info. The exit ideas for the other three stocks will be posted on any of the above-mentioned platforms, hence stay connected.

India is adjusting to her own scenario. The market is factoring in all the possible outcomes of the elections. Don’t go with the doomsday sayers. Ignore them. Most of them have stopped getting their easy money and are predicting hell. Take my word, India is the best investment case in the world today. With China slowing down and US-China stress, India will fear in short term but gain in medium to long term.

So, be selective, take advice from your advisor, use strategies wherever possible and keep adding fresh money in these volatile times.

If you are a member in any WhatsApp group and would like me to contribute, feel free to add 93810-24365. No one to one messages, please.

At your service

Vivek Karwa

Better 2019

190101 – Wishing you all a Very Happy Calendar New Year 2019 and may all the days till next year are exciting, profitable and memorable. I, in my video recently had promised to mention few investment ideas in the article and will do so today. To stay connected with us on all social media platforms Click Here.

I know most of you must be busy on this day and hence will not make this post very long. I promise you will be able to read the whole write-up in under 11 minutes. Not all are sitting in office today like me. 😦

In the video, I had mentioned a line that ‘My gut feeling says we may hit a new high before Lok Sabha elections’ Not necessary the gut feeling is high but most probably 2019 will be better than 2018.

Look at the Index performances in 2018:

Index 29-12-17 31-12-18 Change %tage

Sensex

34057 36038 +2011 5.90%

BSE MidCap

7781 6696 -1085 (13.94%)

BSE SmallCap

19231 14707 -4524 (23.52%)

The Sensex delivered marginal 6% returns. Still, not all investors made it, why? Because the movement was based on just 5 companies. The silver lining is that world markets did much worse. India was among top performers with this bad return. The movement was very shallow. MidCap Index delivered pretty bad and SmallCap Index was a disaster! When Index itself is down this much, no wonder most investors are seeing their portfolios in deep red.

This builds the base for a better the year 2019, in spite of elections around the corner. You can read the previous two posts to read the views on elections.

Volatility will still be seen and hence I would publicly mention ideas which may not see huge volatility. MarketFastFood clients get updates instantly but the public at large who are acting upon reading this post should go safer. Any further update would be posted in the comments box by me in future.

Things are improving constantly, as per RBI’s Stress Test of the banks, the PSU banks are getting stronger. Buy SBI at CMP of around 295 and hold it till I update again.

The loans which were written off from the balance sheet are now finding their way in again with NPA resolution mechanism. Some people got misguided when politicians said loans are being waived off of the rich, there is a big difference between waived off and written off.

The GST has almost settled fully. With the liquidity situation improving in the system and elections around the corner, the rural economy may do well. Elections see a lot of spends and hence the economy benefits. GST will be a game changer and stocks like ITC in the FMCG sector can possibly do well. You can Buy it at this CMP of around 281 and just hold on for some time. Compared to other peer group companies the stock looks cheap as well.

The third stock I would like to choose at this juncture is Cipla at CMP of around 521. You can aim for a price of 600+ and then ask me again what to do.

In the recent Fb Live video, I had said that don’t get misguided by what news you see on social media. It’s a platform right now used by vested interests to spread fake news about the economy. What has been said in MFF articles till now have gone the right majority of the times.

We at VRIDHI will continue to help investors who are ready to listen to the facts with an open mind. Only this can make you money and not believing in the fake news.

Take it from us, the overall quality of the economy has improved and markets will also follow suit and hence look at India with a positive mindset.

When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on phone then scroll to the bottom for the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy 2019

Vivek Karwa