Election Mania or Maniac?

181209 – Sensex, in absolute terms has moved up 600 points since the last MarketFastFood post, the high was even more. We during this period bought a stock called UPL and also exited with quick returns before it fell again. The idea was not to indulge into trading, as said in the previous MFF post, the market had been volatile and after the recent rally we just thought to exit before it comes down, and it did come down. We recently recommended the stock MGL in the portfolios. Will exit the same when the situation warrants.

Vivek Karwa’s Quote:

While investing keep in mind, there is nothing called Short Term, Medium Term or Long Term, there is only Profit Term..!

The next point of view in the previous article was that RBI will not increase the rates and they followed MFF J

We also feel that the chances of FED increasing the rates this month have come down to 50:50, earlier the chances were much higher. Also, the election results won’t impact much, the impact may be seen for maximum Three days. Read the previous article by scrolling down. Also, see the pictures below sent to us from IDFC Mutual Fund. These pictures give us so much sense.

Another analysis below:

Exit polls surveys have been declared predicting not a good picture for BJP while giving an advantage to Congress. Rajasthan would go to Congress, tough fight in MP and Chhattisgarh, TRS will take Telangana. Manipur doesn’t matter!

Let’s first discuss why I don’t give any importance to these exit polls and then let’s divide the results into scenarios.

Why these exit polls don’t matter?

First, Exit polls in the last few occasions have failed. Gujarat is an example.

Second, Rajasthan has always voted government’s alternately between both the major parties. Hence, technically it’s congresses turn now. The market won’t see Congress coming back to power as a negative.

Third, After 15 years of anti-incumbency, a defeat cannot be termed as bad. It’s actually embarrassment even that after decades of one-party rule, the exit polls don’t give a clear victory to the opposition there.

Fourth, Market will be more bothered about the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, these state results have no implications on them. Voters have become smart. They have selectively started voting differently for state and central elections even while held at the same time.

The market will see this negatively only in one aspect: The number game in Rajya Sabha changes!

Scenarios:

Rajasthan: Congress, MP and CH: BJP

The positive impact, as per general expectations hence the market will take this as no surprise.

Rajasthan, MP: Congress, CH: BJP

Anything more than Rajasthan to Congress is a negative news, but just for three days.

All three states BJP: Super news for the market! Would be a dreadful defeat for the opposition. Already Telangana seems to slip out of the Con-TDP combine.

Hence when the finals are just around the corner, don’t bother much about the so-called semi-finals. Choosing a CM face and a PM face are two different things now.

Yes, whatever the results are there would be short and quick volatility, those fully invested can just ignore it and ride through it, and those with cash in hand can look at entry points if they arise.

The overall valuations in certain pockets are cheap now, keep in mind that market will turn around. It sometimes takes little longer time and with so many events happening the flat trend of over markets can continue till Lok Sabha polls. If all three states are won by the sitting government then the flat may start trending up slowly.

So let’s have some fun over the next two days. EVM’s are damn scared that they should not be finally blamed on 11th J

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Thanks

Vivek Karwa

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Elections! Should I Invest?

181125 – Not much ‘absolute’ movement in Sensex and Nifty since the last post of MarketFastFood, this is the advantage of not looking at the markets daily, you just witness the destination and don’t have to experience the volatile ride, what am I trying to say here? It’s this: If you look at the absolute movement since the last post the difference is almost negligible, but if you check the daily movements you would get shocked. We saw wild movements during the past fortnight. Hence if you need to have a peaceful mind then take help of money managers like VRIDHI and we take care of your financial planning while you concentrate on your work in the office.

Generally, one advice I give to people is: concentrate on your business or job, try to earn as much as possible there and invest that money with help of an investment advisor, who in turn would make your money work most for you. Most people who come to my office seeking advice have one thing in common, most of them would have few market mobile apps like moneycontrol installed in their smartphones and they frequently check them during the office hours. Keep in mind that in this competitive world you got to be indispensable, else… you know what I mean, thus focussing on your job becomes the most important thing.

There are few queries which are coming to me regularly from investors past few days. Let’s see them.

1. My investments both in equities and mutual funds are in negative past one year. Should I sell and come out and invest in fixed deposits?

Withdrawing your investments since the market has not performed in past is the most stupid thing a person can do. As a financial advisor, I always say that don’t come to market with lesser than 5 years as time horizon. Keep in mind that you are indirectly investing in businesses and no business can give you returns quickly. The fastest way to double your money is possible only at a casino and the chance still remains just 50:50

Stay invested, keep adding more on every dip. Buy when the market is giving you a discount.

2. State election results are around the corner and Lok Sabha will go to polls early next year. Should I wait?

These are just reasons to procrastinate! Sensex was started in 1978 with 100 points, more than 40 years up and we are around at 35000 today. Now go back and calculate:

How many elections have taken place in 40 years?

How many PM’s we have seen in the past 40 years?

How many scams we have seen in 40 years?

How many natural calamities have occurred in 40 years?

The list goes on…

Still, the Sensex has moved from 100 to 35000..! Great Job. Yes, I agree there would be volatility!

3. Since you yourself said there would be volatility, what should an investor do?

Volatility will surely be there, but that does not mean you should sell and sit in cash, volatility does not mean only downwards, it could mean upwards too! Hence selling and sitting in cash cannot be the solution.

Existing investors can reduce volatility by being more defensive. There are many ways to do it and you should call your portfolio manager on this.

If you are having fresh money you can split the investment over the next 9 months. It’s easier said than done, discipline becomes very important here. Can be done with help of mutual funds, a mutual funds adviser will again be of great help here.

You can also ask why 9 months? It could be 6 as well, or 12 as well. My calculation says 9 would be the best.

The answers to the above three queries should reduce a lot of confusion. Keep in mind, a Fixed Deposit has never made anyone rich! You need to invest in markets. The more time you wait in the market, the more you can earn!

Some advisors may tell you: Don’t bother about anything, invest and wait for 20 years and you will automatically make money! Sad Advice! I agree you will make money, but you will lose on many opportunities! With time the investment methods also change. Warren Buffet style cannot be blindly followed in 2018. Those Buy and Hold advisors preach this to reduce there own workload. I find no other reasons for such advice.

Indian Stock Markets would do well, it seems almost clear that RBI would not increase interest rates at least in next two meetings. Crude has come down steeply. Inflation is under control. Future of markets at least in India seems great. Be part of it or lose yourself in deposits! The choice is yours.

Don’t forget to like our Facebook page to remain updated Click Here. Also when you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

Future looks Bright

We at VRIDHI would like to Wish You all a Very Happy Deepawali. May you make lots of money by next Diwali. You can call us anytime in case you require our assistance.

181106 – In the previous edition of MarketFastFood, it was mentioned that contact your financial adviser as the market looks like bottoming out somewhere in this region. The index level then was 34733, went little more down and is trading today at 35115 as I write this post of MFF. So the market is in a Buy zone or not? We at VRIDHI have started looking seriously at fresh buys but very selectively. We believe that the buying opportunities will be with very selective Stocks and Mutual Funds. You cannot simply go and buy an index or index fund for sure. Hence, taking help of a full-time financial adviser becomes a must.

There are always reasons for the markets to correct or move up. Many people link the movement of the market with the state of the country’s economy. This comparison is absolutely wrong. As Warren Buffet says, Markets in short-term are voting machines and in long-term are weighing machines. The economy may be doing well today but markets can correct steeply due to overvaluations. The economy may be doing bad but markets may do good in the short term. But if you see an average of 5 years, the market would have reflected correctly what the economy did too.

What I am trying to say here is that don’t get carried away with the movement of last few months. Think where will Indian economy be 5 years hence, and what are the signals today? If you are an optimist continue reading, but if you are from the camp that believes nothing is right, even though your own salary being quite fat, then no one can help you. In the market, you need to be grounded, see the real things and don’t have any bias while thinking, and yes always use some bit of common sense too since few missing links can be discovered only with common sense. Market kills a non-optimist!

The GST collections have crossed the 1 Lakh Crore mark last month. It’s a psychological figure for the country but a number of great comforts for analysts like me and the government. The government has been dealing with lower collections since GST was implemented and that was putting pressure of fiscal numbers and in turn on the currency. As the number goes up, these pressures will subside.

Even the corporate India was suffering due to initial confusion and change. The human mind is conditioned to a particular way of working and when you are forced to change there is a lot of resistance. Exactly this thing happened in case of GST too. All these initial hiccups are behind us now, as time progresses people will start appreciating this tax reform except those who are perennially pessimists.

Next look at the PMI numbers. Shows that the economy and its participants are very positive.

The inflation remains under control. Petrol alone is costly which most food products are lower from there 2013 levels. In certain countries, the petrol prices are dirt cheap but the food prices are unaffordable. Few Lakh percentage in inflation! Want to swap the situation? No way!

India continues to rise in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business. Looks like we are not far away from the Top 50 club. Just a matter of time. The whole world will notice our country when we are there. A lot of investment and FDI potential will open up further. Just close your eyes and think what can happen if all these come true and looks like the situation will surely come true.

In case you still have confusion, feel free to call us by clicking Contact Us. We have a presence in Chennai, Delhi, Goa and Kanyakumari (Nagercoil). You can reach me very easily for a personal talk.

Not taking much time so that you can continue enjoying Diwali celebrations, keep aside some money every month for the next 9 months and deploy it with discipline. Just be selective on what you are buying. Indian markets are poised to do very well in the next few years and will also be very volatile in the next few months. A roller coaster ride is expected. We will be in a much better situation by next Diwali.

Feel free to call us any time.

Once Again a Very Happy Diwali to you and your Family.

Thanks and Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

Time to start looking for fresh investments

181012 – In the last article I had mentioned that we have started moving funds into equities in a staggered manner since valuations have started looking fair. Markets post that day have not moved much. We saw a big down day after Dow and Nasdaq fell post the comments of US president. Though the day was down, Indian markets fell much less compared to all other markets.

US markets fell steeply even on Thursday, but Indian markets bucked the trend particularly since crude prices were down. In fact, I on my Facebook profile had mentioned in the morning that things look positive. The day went as expected. You can click the link and join me on FB.

Sensex hit a high of 38990 on 29/8/18 and has closed at 34733 on 12/10/18 a drop of almost 11% while on BSE 500 index hit a high of 15938 on 3/9/18 and closed at 13906 on 12/10/18, a drop of 12.75%

In short, I should say that the correction has been healthy and reiterate that one should start looking at equity investments a bit more seriously now. Though the Sensex and BSE 500 have corrected between 10% and 13% approx., the micro-caps and small caps have been battered out of shape. Many of them may never recover and this cleansing process happens during every deep correction. Even this correction will clean many such companies. PC Jewellers, Gitanjali, Manpasand, Noida Toll, are few examples, the promoters will have to take great efforts to lift them up again.

So what makes me say start investing here on? Please keep in mind that when I say start, it does not mean jump in Monday morning. Markets will still be volatile and hence do the entry and the exit with help of your financial adviser. This page is giving you a broad guidance and not any specific idea on a stock.

Again, So what makes me say start investing here on?

Firstly, FII’s have been sellers in Indian markets till now in India. When do FII’s sell? Generally, they have either sold when they have been themselves facing problems or when they had confidence in valuations in their own country.

Whatever may be the reasons, one thing is historically clear! Whenever investment was made during FII’s dumping, the next two years good money was made. Around 49% of BSE200’s stake is held by the promoters, around 24% is held by the FII’s, around 6.5% is held by Mutual Funds and around 6.5% is held by Banks and Insurance companies. Around 27000 Crs of selling has been done by FII’s till date, which is just single-digit percentage points of their holdings in BSE200.

Five years back had this sort of selling taken place, markets would have tanked much more. This time the interest in markets is much higher and in spite of some SIP’s in Mutual Funds getting cancelled, almost around 6500 Crs of money is flowing into the system month after month and that is cushioning the markets.

Secondly, nothing is wrong with the fundamentals of the Indian economy as made out by certain sections of the society. We have recently entered the Top 5 Economies of the world feat.

What does an economy require to grow? Roads, Rail, Flight and Mobile connectivity, Ports, Waterways? India has been spending tons of money on all these in the last few years! We are set to and bound to grow!

Thirdly, the earnings of Indian companies have finally started growing. We have been waiting for almost 3 years for the corporate earnings to pick up and finally, they have.

What can be the biggest risk to Indian markets?

Crude oil remains the most critical issue. India imports almost 44 Lac barrels of oil per day! That’s huge. Every dollar increase in crude prices burdens us with Rs.44 Lacs x 74 per day! That’s huge! Convert the amount to monthly and yearly, you will be shocked. Crude prices have increased by almost 30 dollars in recent past.

I am not still worried about the crude prices. The world is moving fast towards electric and the prices will remain under pressure. The Indian government is also serious about reducing the use of oil dependence. Even today PM Modi has chaired a meeting regarding this.

Hence, we are somewhere near the bottom on the index. Many stocks may have already made the bottoms. Call your Financial Adviser and start your investments.

Thanks

Vivek Karwa

Have a strong heart in markets

In fact, writing this article after a long gap since we have resorted to Facebook Live videos and YouTube Live videos which most find it easier to listen to. But seeing the recent volatility in the market some investors have been asking for the views which can be read through and hence posting this issue of MarketFastFood and will continue doing it almost every week henceforth. So, stay connect with the VRIDHI website by subscribing for the email alerts and click the link to find all our social media outreach pages: https://vridhi.co.in/2015/05/23/vridhi-connect/

When it comes to stock market, they will always be volatile, ups and downs are part and parcel of markets and an investor must be mentally prepared to ride all the ups and downs in his investing life. That’s why you should not be coming to markets with less that 3-5 years. Yes, expecting to benefit from the volatility can always be expected by applying timing skills to some extent. But that does not mean you will always be successful and hence be prepared to ride the waves at times.

We at VRIDHI during past few months have been suggesting our clients invest in safer avenues and last Friday have started moving those monies to Equity and Equity Mutual Funds in a staggered manner so as to ride the wave upwards as and when it comes. Is this the bottom? Will try to ponder over that below, but yes, we at present have higher levels of safety than what was there few months back.

So what brought the market down this time apart from the high valuations? The market needs a reason to correct and this time the reasons are flowing freely nonstop that has battered market out of shape with many stocks hitting the 2008-2009 lows. Bad situation! Same was the case in 2008-2009 but then those who dared to invest and stay invested made a lot of money later. Hence though bad situation, a smart investor would use this opportunity instead of fearing and running away. Time to look at Stock Investments Seriously!

India was enjoying the Crude Oil price situation, the government was very judicious in using the extra cash which came by way of taxes for paying back the Loans and controlling the fiscal situation. Our bad luck that crude went up and Rupee also depreciated which was negative for the markets.

Then comes the news of IL&FS downgrade and default. Today, let’s focus on this topic alone. IL&FS got downgraded from the A category to below investment grade in one straight shot! Serious issue! A question can be raised even on the rating agencies on why they were sleeping till now. A company which has been enjoying A grade rating for 31 years got downgraded so suddenly catching all investors unaware.

IL&FS defaulting on their payments is not a small issue. With Rs.91000/- Crs of debt, if the company goes bankrupt, it can be India’s Leman Brothers event.

The good part is that the assets of the company are not bad. Most of them can be monetised and that’s why all major shareholders are ready to increase the stake in the company including the foreign shareholder. A Japanese company also has shown interest, and Aditya Birla group and other corporates have expressed interest in buying out the businesses selectively.

Hence, it is a matter of time that the money which was defaulted will be recovered back. Moreover being election year the Government and RBI will not allow such an old institution to go the Leman Brothers way. There are assets available, the issue which has cropped up is Liquidity. You may own 10 Bungalows, but when someone comes to know that you require money urgently, people will offer less than the market rates! Hence once the large shareholders pump in money and the liquidity problem dries up, sanity would return.

Hence, don’t panic, valuations this time are cheap in select Mid and Small Cap companies. The timing can make you good money, don’t fall prey to people who say buy and forget. Even IL&FS required tracking!

You can call us at VRIDHI anytime! https://vridhi.co.in/contact-us/

Thanks

Vivek Karwa

For Investors Budget is a Non Event

Most investors (consider it’s you and we are writing this for you) suffer on one thing… You all plan for their life goals which are anywhere between 5 to 35 years away but start focusing on events which may or may not affect their investments in short term.

We at VRIDHI regularly plan for Long Term Life Goals of people, and then ask You to focus on investing in a disciplined manner. You invest for some months and as the fund values start increasing start worrying about silly things like budget and then start calling us. We are not blaming You for this behaviour, after all You are a human being and supposed to be behaving like this..! As Advisors it is our responsibility to unconfuse You, handhold You, solace You, and help you ride the ups and downs without any fear.

When you have an advisor you need not worry what’s going to happen in next few days or months, your advisor will take enough actions to ride the waves appropriately. You just focus on the goals and stop looking at the returns frequently. Not all years are going to be good or bad. Everything averages out in long term and if the advisor is able to create even a 2% – 3% extra over the average, be rest assured you have a great future. Please don’t underestimate this 2% – 3% it can’t be easily created if you try it yourself.

So what made me call Budget2018 as a Silly Thing?

It’s surely not a sweeping statement. Read the article which we posted on New Year Day. (Click Here to read it). We wrote a line… ‘knowing the politics of Mr. Modi, the freebie politics is not present in the blood of Modi like others’

Whole of January we have been hearing people say that the budget may be populist. In a recent interview to a TV channel PM himself made it clear that: it’s a myth that people want freebies and he will only do what is good for the country. So what we posted seems to be on right track and on Feb.1 it may also be proved 100% right.

Hence don’t expect stupid and uneconomic decisions like waiving off 70000+ Crs just to win votes. Yes announcing schemes to benefit Rural and Agri sectors which can lift them up can’t be termed as populist. We expect many schemes, to be announced being the last budget, if you can understand the scheme of things and invest properly, that extra return over and above average will not be a day dream. In the New Year article we said: 2018 will differentiate Men from Boys and will not be an easy year.

Earlier we were feeling that the general elections may be advanced to Dec’18 with elections in Rajasthan – MP – Chattisgarh. Now we are getting convinced that they may happen as scheduled.

Be assured that the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be the Greatest Event on Planet Earth till date, much bigger than Trump winning US elections. 2019 election is going to be by far biggest thing we will see in our life time. The politicians will go to any extent for defeating Modi. Many would stoop to any level to win. With violence erupting in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh, over the movie Padmavati, all these are poll bound states, anyone with common sense can understand that the stage is already being set for 2019 election and the state elections in 2018.

So obviously there would be volatility. Days of Blindly Investing have gone. In 2018 you will need strategies, timely actions and have to target your investments well. If your advisor tells you to remain invested and blindly continue doing SIP in one fund or stock and ride the whole cycle then you don’t require him.

So, stay focused and continue investing. 2018 can be tough only for those who are not aware themselves on why they are investing.

We will continue posting timely articles which can help you to stay course of wealth creation. Follow this website by entering your email id. It can be easily done by logging on to www.VRIDHI.co.in on a desktop.

So continue investing happily and don’t hesitate to ping us or refer us to your loved ones.

Thanks

Vivek Karwa

Must Read for Techies and Doctors: https://vridhi.co.in/2016/03/26/must-read/

Year 2018 is going to be differentiator between the Men and the Boys

What a year 2017 has been. The Sensex has risen from 26595 to 34057 in one year. That’s 21.91% in a year, meanwhile the BSE Midcap delivered 47% while the BSE Small Cap Index took away the winners prize with a whopping 58%

This is an eye opener for those who stay away from Equities thinking that they are risky. They are risky only if you invest with expectations of high returns in short term, if people treat Equities like Long Term Fixed Deposits then they become more and more safer with the passing time. This does not mean you go and do the act of investing yourself. The line ‘they become more and more safer with the passing time’ holds good only when you are seeking the advice from an experienced advisor. Keep in mind there are many examples where people have lost even in 2017, though 2017 can be termed as best of the years.

So how does 2018 hold for investors? We at VRIDHI believe 2018 is going to be a challenging, volatile and a year with full of surprises, and yet there would be ample number of opportunities which would frequently be thrown up, will the investors grab them at the right point is a big question. Hence again you may need help of an experienced advisor. In 2017 the percentage of regrets may have been very less but 2018 would clearly differentiate between the Men and the Boys. Only seasoned people will be able to grab most of the opportunities.

We may end Sensex in 2018 at around 38750 – 40000. We may see great amount of support at 29450 on the lower side and immediate support at 32550. When we say target of around 38750 – 40000 for the year, in percentage terms it is just around 12% to 17% meaning we need to be really opportunistic in the ensuing year. Those not feeling happy with these returns kindly keep in mind Equities will still be the best performing asset class in this year and hence stay invested in a tactical manner!

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So what can drive the market up or down in the next year? Some of the factors are mentioned below:

* Earnings pickup: Since many quarters, we all are expecting that the corporate earnings would pick up soon. After the implementation of GST and the systems having almost settled fully, we expect that the earnings can pick up from March quarter onwards. If the earnings pick up happens in a secular manner we may cross even the 40k mark which we have mentioned above.

* Budget and Govt Spending: Feb.1 would be the last full budget of this government and hence expect many favourable announcements for the people and the economy. Only thing which we should be alert of is that the govt should not go overboard and create fiscal deficit. But knowing the politics of Mr. Modi, the freebie politics is not present in the blood of Modi like others. Widening of Fiscal Deficit can create problems like those we saw during 2013 under MMS. This govt has been under control till now.

* State Elections and General Elections: People in general don’t think with mind open. They would see a great defeat in Modi if the ruling party does not fare well in a state like TN where they actually have no presence! They conveniently forget the 19 state governments and central govt is ruled by same people. Mentioning all these since every state election is crucial in 2018. There are 8 state elections and we expect even the general elections to be advanced to Dec’18. We saw 800 points intraday dip when at a point of time Congress went ahead in Gujarat! Hence market is not going to like any bad surprises and market expects that the same PM be re-elected. Any change would be a temporary but sharp setback to our money!

* Global Markets and Geo-Political Tensions: Globally markets are flushed with liquidity. As long as this liquidity is not squeezed out, we would continue doing well. The risk of North Korea, Pakistan and the likes going out of senses is a huge problem. India is also seeing huge money flowing into markets from the traditional FD investors.

* Inflation and Interest Rates: There are fears that RBI may hike Interest Rates in case Inflation spikes up. We are totally control over inflation till now and are around the RBI expectations. Inflation spikes can bring in selling pressure in the markets and a rate hike can make the situation worse.

We don’t think Interest Rates can move up from here, on the contrarian we feel they are still headed only downwards. Those meeting their ends meet with the interest amounts are finding it quite difficult. Senior Citizens in particular are feeling the pinch. Sadly this is a global phenomenon and we got to deal with it.

With 2017 getting over, let’s change our thinking. Let 2018 begin looking for new opportunities. At VRIDHI we can help you get better than Fixed Deposits with minimum risks. We take Extra Care of Retired and Seniors Citizens. VRIDHI has representations in Delhi, Chennai, Goa and Nagercoil.

Many of you would be looking for some safe bets in 2018, have tried to mention few of them on this show at Moneycontrol. You can view the show by Clicking Here.

So plan your money well in 2018 and tag your investments with your goals in life. Don’t blindly invest in anything, including Bitcoins! Seek help of your Investment Adviser.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

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