Budget 2019

#Budget2019

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXsUtQ5R1Vw

Update from another source: (source name not known):

HIGHLIGHTS OF BUDGET 2019

Tax
1.    Within 2 years, Tax assessment will be done electronically
2.    IT returns processing in just 24 hours
3.    Minimum 14% revenue of GST to states by Central Govt.
4.    Custom duty has abolished from 36 Capital Goods
5.    Recommendations to GST council for reducing GST rates for home buyers
6.    Full Tax rebate upto 5 lakh annual income after all deductions.
7.    Standard deduction has increase from 40000 to 50000
8.    Exempt on tax on second self-occupied house
9.    Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194A has increased from 10000 to 40000
10.    Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194I has increased from 180000 to 240000
11.    Capital tax Benefit u/s 54 has increased from investment in one residential house to two residential houses.
12.    Benefit u/s 80IB has increased to one more year i.e. 2020
13.    Benefit has given to unsold inventory has increased to one year to two years.


Other Areas

14.    State share has increased to 42%
15.    PCA restriction has abolished from 3 major banks
16.    2 lakhs seats will increase for the reservation of 10%
17.    60000 crores for manrega
18.    1.7 Lakh crore to ensure food for all
19.    22nd AIIMS has to be opened in Haryana
20.    Approval has to be given to PM Kisan Yojana
21.    Rs. 6000 per annum has to be given to every farmer having upto 2 hectare land. Applicable from Sept 2018. Amount will be transferred in 3 installments
22.    National kamdhenu ayog for cows. Rs. 750 crores for National Gokul Mission
23.    2% interest subvention for farmers pursuing animal husbandry and also create separate department for fisheries.
24.    2% interest subvention for farmers affected by natural calamities and additional 3% interest subvention for timely payment.
25.    Tax free Gratuity limit increase to 20 Lakhs from 10 Lakhs
26.    Bonus will be applicable for workers earning 21000 monthly
27.    The scheme, called Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Mandhan, will provide assured monthly pension of Rs. 3,000 with contribution of Rs. 100 per month for workers in unorganized sector after 60 years of age.
28.    Our government delivered 6 crores free LPG connections under Ujjawala scheme
29.    2% interest relief for MSME GST registered person
30.    26 weeks of Maternity Leaves to empower the women
31.    More than 3 Lakhs crores for defence
32.    One lakh digital villages in next 5 years
33.    Single window for approval of India film makers

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Tax Saving ELSS

With Financial Year coming to an end, it is time you start planning for your Tax Saving immediately. You can save up to Rs. 45000/- in Tax alone based on the Tax Slab you are in. Keep in mind: Money Saved is Money Earned.

Equity Linked Savings Scheme (ELSS):

ELSS is a mutual fund scheme which provides deduction/tax benefit under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act, up to Rs.1,50,000 per annum. There is no upper limit to investing in ELSS.

ELSS invests in diversified equity funds. Returns from ELSS are market linked which aims at providing capital appreciation over 3 year period.

It is the best available scheme which offers higher returns combined with tax benefits for a lock-in period of just 3 years. It comes with least lock-in period when compared to Tax Saving Fixed Deposits or Public Provident Fund.

Both Individuals and HUFs can invest in ELSS.

Investment under the scheme can be continued even after 3 years.

Even though the risk involved in investing in ELSS is higher than Bank Fixed Deposit or Company Fixed Deposit or Public Provident Fund, the returns have always been much higher ranging from 12% to 18%

Investment can be made either in a lump sum or through a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).

If the investment is made through SIP, each investment/instalment should complete 3 years before it can be redeemed.

ELSS is an ideal scheme for long term wealth creation.

Invest in ELSS with VRIDHI:

We at VRIDHI analyse all Mutual Fund schemes on a continuous basis to help our investors choose the right schemes. We also have regular intereactions with the Mutual Fund company officials and Fund Managers and express our opinions and concerns which may affect the investors.

When you invest with VRIDHI, you can leave the tracking job to us and focus on your own work.

Click Here to contact us.

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Roller Coaster Ride Ahead

190127 – Volatility has set in as expected. Again, like before, the same is invisible in the indexes, but when you dig deep into the market you find that enough damage has been done in the past 10 days. There was some recovery which tried coming in, and some of that has again been taken off. Justified! The market climbing by the stairs would be better, an investor should not expect an escalator type of recovery, that’s always dangerous.

We at VRIDHI have been trying to stay connected with you all on various platforms, would like to mention a few of them before proceeding, would request you to join them all.

1. You can follow this website by subscribing for email alerts. Scroll down to the bottom if you are reading it on phone. If you open the website on a system then you would find the subscribe option on the left-hand side.

2. Subscribe to the YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/VivekKarwaIndia/

3. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/teamVRIDHI

4. Twitter: https://twitter.com/vivekkarwa (being personal twitter, you will find non-finance posts too)

Now coming back to the markets:

I, still feel we would do better in 2019 than 2018. Leave the minor blips, I guess, in the previous post I had mentioned that my gut feeling says we may hit a new high before the Lok Sabha elections. Some people sent me counters, people don’t understand! I am in competition with none, and nor do I predict this short term. It’s just a gut feeling which may turn out to be real or may fail. If it fails, so be it.

Some people have been sending me WhatsApp messages and Facebook messages that America may crash and take India along with it. The scenario is totally different. Dow Jones on 3/12/2018 hit a high of 25980, it saw a steep correction and hit a low of 21712 on 26/12/2018, that’s 16% correction in a short span of time. The latest high on Dow is 24750 achieved on 18/1/2019 which again is a massive recovery in short span of time.

We did not move with Dow! India is adjusting to her own scenario.

What’s the lesson? We have to move very selectively for the next few months. The fact of the matter is that the valuations are cheaper now, and yet I am not able to freeze on the investment ideas easily. Meaning, a normal investors life would be much more difficult. We at VRIDHI will keep doing the hard work on behalf of you. Just stay connected with us. In the previous post, I had recommended three ideas, and all of them are stable even today. Read them by Clicking Here.

Also in the previous post to the previous, I had mentioned that we had recommended MGL to MarketFastFood clients and you know what? The stock is still stable. Don’t take this as a Buy recommendation since we may exit without any info. The exit ideas for the other three stocks will be posted on any of the above-mentioned platforms, hence stay connected.

India is adjusting to her own scenario. The market is factoring in all the possible outcomes of the elections. Don’t go with the doomsday sayers. Ignore them. Most of them have stopped getting their easy money and are predicting hell. Take my word, India is the best investment case in the world today. With China slowing down and US-China stress, India will fear in short term but gain in medium to long term.

So, be selective, take advice from your advisor, use strategies wherever possible and keep adding fresh money in these volatile times.

If you are a member in any WhatsApp group and would like me to contribute, feel free to add 93810-24365. No one to one messages, please.

At your service

Vivek Karwa

Better 2019

190101 – Wishing you all a Very Happy Calendar New Year 2019 and may all the days till next year are exciting, profitable and memorable. I, in my video recently had promised to mention few investment ideas in the article and will do so today. To stay connected with us on all social media platforms Click Here.

I know most of you must be busy on this day and hence will not make this post very long. I promise you will be able to read the whole write-up in under 11 minutes. Not all are sitting in office today like me. 😦

In the video, I had mentioned a line that ‘My gut feeling says we may hit a new high before Lok Sabha elections’ Not necessary the gut feeling is high but most probably 2019 will be better than 2018.

Look at the Index performances in 2018:

Index 29-12-17 31-12-18 Change %tage

Sensex

34057 36038 +2011 5.90%

BSE MidCap

7781 6696 -1085 (13.94%)

BSE SmallCap

19231 14707 -4524 (23.52%)

The Sensex delivered marginal 6% returns. Still, not all investors made it, why? Because the movement was based on just 5 companies. The silver lining is that world markets did much worse. India was among top performers with this bad return. The movement was very shallow. MidCap Index delivered pretty bad and SmallCap Index was a disaster! When Index itself is down this much, no wonder most investors are seeing their portfolios in deep red.

This builds the base for a better the year 2019, in spite of elections around the corner. You can read the previous two posts to read the views on elections.

Volatility will still be seen and hence I would publicly mention ideas which may not see huge volatility. MarketFastFood clients get updates instantly but the public at large who are acting upon reading this post should go safer. Any further update would be posted in the comments box by me in future.

Things are improving constantly, as per RBI’s Stress Test of the banks, the PSU banks are getting stronger. Buy SBI at CMP of around 295 and hold it till I update again.

The loans which were written off from the balance sheet are now finding their way in again with NPA resolution mechanism. Some people got misguided when politicians said loans are being waived off of the rich, there is a big difference between waived off and written off.

The GST has almost settled fully. With the liquidity situation improving in the system and elections around the corner, the rural economy may do well. Elections see a lot of spends and hence the economy benefits. GST will be a game changer and stocks like ITC in the FMCG sector can possibly do well. You can Buy it at this CMP of around 281 and just hold on for some time. Compared to other peer group companies the stock looks cheap as well.

The third stock I would like to choose at this juncture is Cipla at CMP of around 521. You can aim for a price of 600+ and then ask me again what to do.

In the recent Fb Live video, I had said that don’t get misguided by what news you see on social media. It’s a platform right now used by vested interests to spread fake news about the economy. What has been said in MFF articles till now have gone the right majority of the times.

We at VRIDHI will continue to help investors who are ready to listen to the facts with an open mind. Only this can make you money and not believing in the fake news.

Take it from us, the overall quality of the economy has improved and markets will also follow suit and hence look at India with a positive mindset.

When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on phone then scroll to the bottom for the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy 2019

Vivek Karwa

Not Much to Fear

181223 – Those who had read the previous MarketFastFood article dated 9-12-18 would have found things post that very interesting. If you did not read Click Here, read it first and then continue reading this article.

First, I had said, don’t fear the state election results too much, they are going to be insignificant in the current scenario. I had posted two charts showing how markets have behaved in the past.

What happened finally? Though all the three states were lost by the ruling party, the markets gave thumbs up to the results. The Sensex and Nifty closed in the green on the same day. Why? It’s all due to the vote share pattern! If you look at the vote share, as an investor you will be least bothered on the results outcome.

Second, Though I had mentioned market looks good, the volatility will remain. Check the data, on the article day 9-12-18, Sensex was 35673, it hit high of 36554 on 19-12-18 and as I write today’s MFF, we are at 35742, hardly any movement!

Third, It was mentioned that RBI will not increase the rates and it went as expected. No rate hike and no impact of Urjit Patel’s resignation.

Fourth, I had mentioned that we had recommended MGL to MFF clients and the stock still remains in our portfolio’s. It hit a high of 907 recently.

Hence, my stance on the market continues to be neutral right now, Buy on dips, but be very selective on what you are buying. Volatility will persist till Lok Sabha Elections and hence no blind buying until then. Seek an Investment Adviser’s help.

Till the general elections are over, my views can drastically change as the events unfold, hence stay tuned to www.VRIDHI.co.in and follow this page. Read the last paragraph of this article.

One can ask why am I neutral and not negative on the market in spite of America’s partial shut down.

As of now, I am least bothered about what is happening in America. Not that they don’t affect us, just that I don’t fear America movements like before currently.

Good things are happening in India.

Inflation is so much under control that RBI won’t think of rate hike even in the next meeting. Remember the inflation in 2012-13? It hit above 12% and we are today under 3% little more down and we can reach deflationary situations! That would be negative but will not happen.

Banks are collecting the earlier written off NPA’s back. Government is funding the Public Sector Banks heavily. Look at the stock movements of strong PSU banks. They are so stable. (Not a buy recommendation)

The GST rates have been cut yesterday. Now hardly around 22 goods are remaining under the 28% category. The market will celebrate this for sure. I have in a number of TV interviews and articles said that in 2-3 yrs post-GST the overall tax paid by the common public will come down. A recent report already states that a common man is saving Rs.320 already, mainly due to FMCG products.

We as a country are heading into interesting times. Don’t go by what news you read. With elections hardly 4 months far, you need to read every news with two teaspoons of salt. Better to stay connected to VRIDHI.

I promise to mention few Investment Ideas before the New Year article. Keep following us. Read the below para.

When you visit www.vridhi.co.in on a laptop or desktop, you can subscribe for email alerts on future articles. If you are browsing on phone then scroll to the bottom for the ‘follow’ button. Do stay connected with us. Click Here for all modes.

Happy Investing

Vivek Karwa

Sensex 2019

Mr. VivekKarwa is the Chairman of the Expert Committee at the prestigious Hindustan Chamber of Commerce which is organising the #Sensex2019 program on 16-12-18 at Chennai.

Do click the link below and Register.

Click Here

Election Mania or Maniac?

181209 – Sensex, in absolute terms has moved up 600 points since the last MarketFastFood post, the high was even more. We during this period bought a stock called UPL and also exited with quick returns before it fell again. The idea was not to indulge into trading, as said in the previous MFF post, the market had been volatile and after the recent rally we just thought to exit before it comes down, and it did come down. We recently recommended the stock MGL in the portfolios. Will exit the same when the situation warrants.

Vivek Karwa’s Quote:

While investing keep in mind, there is nothing called Short Term, Medium Term or Long Term, there is only Profit Term..!

The next point of view in the previous article was that RBI will not increase the rates and they followed MFF J

We also feel that the chances of FED increasing the rates this month have come down to 50:50, earlier the chances were much higher. Also, the election results won’t impact much, the impact may be seen for maximum Three days. Read the previous article by scrolling down. Also, see the pictures below sent to us from IDFC Mutual Fund. These pictures give us so much sense.

Another analysis below:

Exit polls surveys have been declared predicting not a good picture for BJP while giving an advantage to Congress. Rajasthan would go to Congress, tough fight in MP and Chhattisgarh, TRS will take Telangana. Manipur doesn’t matter!

Let’s first discuss why I don’t give any importance to these exit polls and then let’s divide the results into scenarios.

Why these exit polls don’t matter?

First, Exit polls in the last few occasions have failed. Gujarat is an example.

Second, Rajasthan has always voted government’s alternately between both the major parties. Hence, technically it’s congresses turn now. The market won’t see Congress coming back to power as a negative.

Third, After 15 years of anti-incumbency, a defeat cannot be termed as bad. It’s actually embarrassment even that after decades of one-party rule, the exit polls don’t give a clear victory to the opposition there.

Fourth, Market will be more bothered about the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, these state results have no implications on them. Voters have become smart. They have selectively started voting differently for state and central elections even while held at the same time.

The market will see this negatively only in one aspect: The number game in Rajya Sabha changes!

Scenarios:

Rajasthan: Congress, MP and CH: BJP

The positive impact, as per general expectations hence the market will take this as no surprise.

Rajasthan, MP: Congress, CH: BJP

Anything more than Rajasthan to Congress is a negative news, but just for three days.

All three states BJP: Super news for the market! Would be a dreadful defeat for the opposition. Already Telangana seems to slip out of the Con-TDP combine.

Hence when the finals are just around the corner, don’t bother much about the so-called semi-finals. Choosing a CM face and a PM face are two different things now.

Yes, whatever the results are there would be short and quick volatility, those fully invested can just ignore it and ride through it, and those with cash in hand can look at entry points if they arise.

The overall valuations in certain pockets are cheap now, keep in mind that market will turn around. It sometimes takes little longer time and with so many events happening the flat trend of over markets can continue till Lok Sabha polls. If all three states are won by the sitting government then the flat may start trending up slowly.

So let’s have some fun over the next two days. EVM’s are damn scared that they should not be finally blamed on 11th J

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Thanks

Vivek Karwa