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Posted by VRIDHI on 18/06/2014

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Posted by VRIDHI on 05/06/2014

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Few Words on Market…

Posted by VRIDHI on 24/01/2015

by Vivek Karwa, CPFA., CFPCM

150120: #IndianStockMarket has delivered fabulous returns in 2014. For the period 1-1-2014 to 31-12-2014 the frontline index #Sensex had given a return of 29.89% though the return was good it stood third in the list of global indexes.

The #BSE100 delivered a return of 32.27% while the #BSE200 and #BSE500 delivered returns of 35.49% and 36.97% respectively. The US market of which we are generally obsessed of, #DowJones delivered just 8.49% for the same period. We in this newsletter have always been bullish past one year and the #Bankex delivered highest return of 65.05% among the sectoral indexes.

If you note from the above mentioned returns the highest returns have been from the small and mid cap while the frontline stocks along with Sensex and Nifty have given lowest returns. Lowest in comparison to other indices, in absolute terms 30% returns can be termed as fantastic.

In spite of all cylinders pumping, the markets do not seem to be costly yet. The small cap and the mid cap stocks were beaten so badly that they ran anywhere between 50 to even 200% in certain cases. Such stocks even after such run up are still trading anywhere between 30 to 60% lower to their highest levels registered.

Even the Sensex and Nifty valuations do not look very bad. We registered 21000 in Jan’08 and crossed the level in this year and are now trading at 28300 approx. after 5 years! The valuations of companies have changed during the period and market is still to focus on this factor and re-rate the pe.

We this time have a stable government, not even a year is over hence it would be too early to say that they would perform very well, but the initial signals suggest that they are serious on reforms and may do many things which will improve the eps of the frontline companies. We post the end of this financial year, will start factoring in the future earnings. So at the current P/E of Sensex and the Nifty we are definitely costly, we are just at fair values.

The new government has also been cheered with the crude oil prices slump. The government which used to fund the fuel consumers by way of subsidies are able to garner more revenues in form of taxes in spite of reducing the prices nearly 10 times since assuming office! This will aid in controlling the subsidy burden.

Interest rates also have been cut for the first time by RBI after many years. We feel this is the start of the downtrend in the rate cycle. Lower interest rates will have positive impact on every sector in the economy. Banking sector may continue doing well in the future since they will now be able to recover the loans which have already been termed as NPAs.

So 2015 should be volatile but positive year. We will find huge supports at 25500 – 25000 and 24700 – 24300 Sensex levels. We may try to achieve 33600 – 35000 in 2015. Remain Invested.

This Article will be Printed in the Investors Digest Magazine of TamilNadu Investors Association (SEBI Recognized)

Disclosure:- It is safe to assume that the author may have interest in the sectors recommended in this news letter. Seeking personal advice from your Financial Advisor is recommended before acting on any of the substance given herein. The numbers, figures, etc., presented may have been taken from various sources.

***

 

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Take the road to Retirement Planning before it is too late

Posted by VRIDHI on 21/01/2015

The two clear lessons that one can draw while planning for retirement are: start early and invest in equities

Deepali Sen, 19/1/15 LiveMint

source: http://www.livemint.com/Money/b6Rr8GeNpqITGj6NmUG07O/Take-the-road-to-retirement-planning-before-it-is-too-late.html

Life expectancy of people has gone up thanks to advancements in the field of medicine as well as consciousness towards fitness and wellness. We may very well end up pushing our individual envelope towards mid- or late-nineties. With most of us working from 25 years of age until we turn 60, surviving until 95 years of age would mean a proportion of 1:1 between our earning and post-retirement years. In these 35 years of earning, one has to plan for other goals besides retirement, such as for children’s education, their marriage, home, car purchase, funding expenses around fulfilling daily needs, whims and desires, and so on.

Retirement is Real

Retirement will hit all of us at some point in time. And it is much closer that it may appear. All of us would rather have our money outlive us than the other way round. Retiring from ‘working for money’ means that after retirement one has to live off assets accumulated during the pre-retirement or working years.

I have come across people (and they aren’t few in number) who are well in their 40s but are yet to start planning and building their retirement nest.

It is concerning to see people prioritize goals such as a lavish wedding for their daughter, for a house that is much bigger than what they need, or for spending unwarranted sums on vacations without a care for tomorrow over their retirement. This eventually means that in their post-retirement years, they will have insufficient funds, and may even have liabilities such as a home loan tenor ending just a few years before retirement, or not being able to pursue their dream of starting out on their own.

While most people strive hard to create or earn their money, not many are as careful about nurturing the money earned to keep it relevant in terms of its purchasing power.

Life after Retirement

Our retirement expenses are likely to balloon due to high inflation and our increased longevity. This, in turn, would mean that we would need to invest larger amounts of money, for longer periods of time at higher rates to accumulate the appropriate size of funds needed for retirement.

Let us take an example of two couples, one in their early 30s and the other aged 40 who haven’t started investing for their retirement yet. Inflation has been assumed at 7%; the pre-retirement distribution phase generates returns at 12% per annum and returns post-retirement are pegged at 8%. Also, it has been assumed that expenses during retirement will be 70% of today’s expenses (after being adjusted for inflation).

For someone currently spending Rs.6 lakh annually (Rs.50,000 per month at 30 years of age), she will require around Rs.32 lakh per year for her retirement at 60 years of age (this need will keep increasing at the rate 7% per year). Moreover, if she were to live-off her assets (which would grow at 8% per annum post-retirement) she must have at least Rs.9.5 crore at 60. For building a corpus of Rs.9.5 crore, she needs to invest around Rs.27,000 per month for the next 30 years at 12% per annum returns. In effect, while planning for her retirement, she would require an amount that is more than 50% of her current expenses.

For a 40-year-old spending Rs.1 lakh every month, she would need around Rs.32.5 lakh per year when she turns 60 at retirement. This would require a corpus of Rs.9.66 crore, which can be built by investing around Rs.98,000 per month. In this case, the monthly investment required for creating the required retirement corpus is nearly equal to her current monthly expenses.

In essence, if you start to save for your retirement when you are 30, you would require around 50% of your monthly expenses for investments; and at 40 you will need to invest nearly the same money as you spend per month at the moment.

Equity is a Must

The story gets murkier if you are building your retirement nest using just your Employees’ Provident Fund or Public Provident Fund corpus—returns in these instruments are currently 8.7% per annum. Equity is a must and has to find space in one’s retirement plan. From April 1979 until date, the S&P BSE Sensex has delivered returns close to 17% per annum (excluding the dividend earned).

The two clear lessons that one can draw while planning for retirement are: start early and invest in equities. Starting later in life might get too late to catch up, and avoiding equities could leave you with returns lower than inflation.

If you haven’t started walking on the road of retirement planning yet, do get on before it is too late.

***

 

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Be Smart with Credit Cards

Posted by VRIDHI on 19/01/2015

Credit Cards, otherwise called as Plastic Money is an Unavoidable Deadly Friend in today’s world. Deadly, if you don’t use it sensibly, and a great Friend if you follow simple steps, procedures in using it. Since there are many advantages as well, I am not going to ask you the question: if you really require a card? We all do!

by Vivek Karwa, 18/1/2015

source: http://adviceadda.com/article/481-everything-that-only-money-guru-tell-you-about-credit-cards

1. Applying for a new card: Most banks have both free cards and chargeable cards now days. Some cards are free while applying and also free from any recurring charges. Some cards come with application fee but no recurring charges and the other category is fee while applying with an AMC every year!

The features and the credit limits differ in each category and their sub-categories!

As a first timer it is better to apply for the basic, all free card. The same can be upgraded later. Take a copy of the features while handing your application to the bank or its agent.

2. Credit Limit: If you are an impulsive shopper, it is better to have a card with lowest possible limit. Self control over expenses is the first requirement in safe usage of cards. Say if your limit is Rs.10000/- every time you hit the limit you can pay and then use again. This method controls your spends. Keep in mind having large limit is not something prestigious! You can be smart even with very low limit. You can always call the customer care and get your limit decreased.

3. Secondary Cards: Many banks offer secondary cards with the main card. Meaning a spouse can have the primary card and give the secondary card to the other partner, you can have the primary and give the secondary to your children. Remember in such cases the liability of entire spend is on the primary card holder!

4. PIN and Passwords: Now days as an added facility all cards come with mobile password facility for very transaction done online. Always keep the PIN and your passwords with you alone. Never ever share the same to anyone calling you even though at times they may say that they are calling from the bank! Remember banks don’t require your PIN so they will never ask you.

5. Payments: Always pay in full. The banks give you minimum payment facility but then you are charged hefty as interest rates! Certain cards charge you 3.5% per month as interest! That’s whooping 42% per year! This is the reason in the above point I asked you to keep the limit low so that you would spend within limits. Paying in full keeps your CIBIL score strong!

6. Cash Facility: Never avail this facility. It sounds good in case of emergencies but even if you take it, pay it immediately within the due dates.

7. Credit Transfer Facilities: Banks will offer you to transfer other card dues to their cards at No Charge! Just ask yourself are Banks fools? Hope you got the answer hence never avail this facility!

8. Always Remember the Statement Dates: Every card will have their own billing cycle dates! Say today is 10th of the month and your statement is prepared on 12th of every month, then you can very well wait for two days and then spend on the card! This way the bank funds you for almost 40 days! Then pay on time! I have statement date written on every card of mine and always spend on the card which has farthest billing date! Actually banks lose every month due to me!

9. Be aware of all programs and benefits: Have you not seen shops offering special discounts to certain card holders? Every bank comes with unique offers! Know them and benefit out of them.

10. Spend only on Needs: Don’t spend just to avail an benefit! Avail the benefit when you are actually spending! Confused? I mean always spend on your Needs and not on Wants! Wants will always be there, just because a discount is running on a product, you need not go and buy it!

Cards are surely of immense use! You need not load your wallet and move around! Even if stolen the person may not be able to use it if you have activated the PIN. You just cannot avoid plastic ;)

***

 

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How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything

Posted by VRIDHI on 08/01/2015

Isaac Arnsdorf & Simon Kennedy, Economic Times 8/1/15

source: http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31818&articlexml=How-50-Oil-Changes-Almost-Everything-08012015018005

From geopolitics to inflation, the biggest slide in energy prices since 2008 recession is shaking up things in every conceivable sphere

The plummeting price of oil means no more trout ice cream. Coromoto, a parlour in Merida, Venezuela, famous for its 900 flavours, closed during its busiest season in November because of a milk shortage caused by the country’s 64% inflation rate, the world’s fastest.

That’s the plight of an oil-producing nation. At the same time, consuming countries like the US are taking advantage. Trucks, which burn more gasoline, outsold cars in December by the most since 2005, according to data from Ward’s Automotive Group.

The biggest collapse in energy prices since the 2008 global recession is shifting wealth and power from autocratic petro-states to industrialised consumers, which could make the world safer, according to a Berenberg Bank report.Surging US shale supply , weakening Asian and European demand and a stronger dollar are pushing oil past threshold after threshold to a five-and-half-year low, with a dip below $40 a barrel “not out of the question“, said Rob Haworth, a Seattle based senior investment strategist at US Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $120 billion.

“Oil prices are the big story for 2015,“ said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor. “They are a once-in-a-generation shock and will have huge reverberations.“

Weak Prices

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell as low as $49.66 a barrel on Wednesday , dropping below $50 for first time since 2009. Prices dropped 48% in 2014 after three years of the highest average prices in history . West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, plunged to as low as $46.83 on Wednesday , about a 56% decline from its June high.

“We see prices remaining weak for the whole of the first half “ of 2015, said Gareth Lewis-Davies, an analyst at BNP Paribas in London.

If the price falls past $39 a barrel, we could see it go as low as $30 a barrel, said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist for UnitedICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey, who projected the 2014 drop.

“Where prices bottom will be based on an emotional decision,“ Zimmerman said. “It won’t be based on the supply-demand fundamentals, so it’s guaranteed to be overdone to the downside.“

The biggest winner would be the Philippines, whose economic growth would accelerate to 7.6% on average over the next two years if oil fell to $40, while Russia would contract 2.5% over the same period, according to an Oxford Economics Ltd’s December analysis of 45 national economies.

Inflation Outlook

Among advanced economies, Hong Kong is the biggest winner, while Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates fare the worst, according to Oxford Economics.

One concern of central bankers is the effect of falling oil prices on inflation. If crude remains below $60 per barrel this quarter, global inflation will reach levels not seen since the worldwide recession ended in 2009, according to JP Morgan Securities LLC economists led by Bruce Kasman in New York.

Kasman and his team are already predicting global inflation to reach 1.5% in the first half of this year, while sustained weakness in oil suggest a decline to 1%, they said.

Negative Inflation

The euro area would probably witness negative inflation, while rates in the US, the UK and Japan also would weaken to about 0.5%. For what it calls price stability, Fed’s inflation target is 2%. Emerging-market inflation would also fade although lower currencies and policies aimed at slowing the effects on retail prices may limit the fall.

As for growth, a long-lasting price of $60 would add 0.5 percentage point to global gross domestic product, they estimate.

Even as cheaper fuel stimulates the global economy, it could aggravate political tension by squeezing government revenue and social benefits, Citigroup Inc analysts said in a January 5 report.

Either way , previously unthinkable events now look more likely .Byron Wien, a Blackstone Group vice-chairman, predicting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will resign in 2015 and Iran will agree to stop its nuclear programme.

Iran Losses

Iran is already missing tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue due to Western sanctions and years of economic mismanagement under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

President Hassan Rouhani, elected on a pledge of prosperity to be achieved by ending Iran’s global isolation, is facing a falling stock market and weakening currency .Iranian officials are warning of spending and investment cuts in next year’s budget, which will be based on $72-a-barrel crude. Even that forecast is proving too optimistic. “Iran will stumble along with less growth and development,“ said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, who specialises in Iran’s economy . “The oil price fall is not reason enough for Iran to compromise.“

The Russian economy may shrink 4.7% this year if oil averages $60 a barrel under a “stress scenario,“ the central bank said in December. The plunge in crude prices prompted a selloff in the ruble with the Russian currency falling to a record low against the dollar last month and tumbling 46% last year, its worst performance since 1998, when Russia defaulted on local debt.

Russian Production

“The risk is that, as a badly-wounded and cornered bear, Russia may turn more aggressive in its increasing desperation, threatening global peace and the European economic outlook,“ said Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank’s London-based chief economist.However, “the massive blow to Russia’s economic capabilities should -over time -make it less likely that Russia will wage another war.“

Russian oil production rose to a post-Soviet record last month, showing how pumping of the nation’s biggest source of revenue has so far been unaffected by US and European sanctions or a price collapse. The nation increased output to 10.667 million barrels a day, according to preliminary data from the Energy Ministry on January 2.That compares with global consumption of 93.3 million barrels a day , based on the International Energy Agency’s estimate for 2015.

Venezuela, which relies on oil for 95% of its export revenue, risks insolvency, Jefferies LLC said in a January 6 note. The cost of insuring the country’s five year debt has tripled since July, Citigroup said. President Nicolas Maduro is visiting China to discuss financing and expects to travel to other OPEC nations to work out a pricing strategy.

Confounding Investors

The US, still a net oil importer, would accelerate economic growth to 3.8% in the next two years with oil at $40 a barrel, compared with 3% at $84, the Oxford Economics study found. The boost to consumers could be offset by oil companies’ scaling back investments, according to Kate Moore, chief investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. Producers are cutting spending by 20% to 40%, according to Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

The mixed picture is confounding investors. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of US equities fell 1.9% on January 5, the biggest decline since October, as oil brought down energy shares and stoked concerns that global growth is slowing.

While cheaper oil helps consumers, business spending has a bigger effect on equities, and oil companies are set to cut investments. Oil at $50 a barrel could trim $6 a share off earnings in the S&P 500 Index this year, according to Savita Subramanian and Dan Suzuki, New York-based strategists at Bank of America Corp.

Bets on high energy prices have mashed share prices of companies such as Ford Motor Co, Tesla Motors Inc and Boeing Co. ­ Bloomberg.

***

 

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MFF – 141231

Posted by VRIDHI on 31/12/2014

We are the Third Best performing stock market in 2014! #Sensex gave us 29.9% and #China was ahead with 43% and the No.1 was Argentina! Many would get surprised with #Argentina on top because as #IndianInvestors we are used to talking about China and US markets more than any other markets! #DowJones has delivered just 8.5% in 2014. One more surprise: Another best market after India in the list is #Pakistan!

You may think, Stock Market is supposed to be performing good only when everything in the economy is going good! Nothing is going right in Pakistan, then how can they be in the list of top performing markets? Markets at times are irrational, and that’s the very reason why Indian markets also performed not very bad, from the year 2009 to 2014, in spite of we witnessing ‘a scam a day’ and total policy paralysis with almost Rs.18 Lakh Crore worth of project getting stuck! (Hope you got the answer why your Infrastructure Funds gave negative returns).

Some of you may now think that markets perform in expectation of better future and hence Pakistan would have performed, expecting a better future! Well, frankly we have no clue why it performed! May be it was a distressed market and had a good run! But we are sure that Indian market is performing ‘Anticipating the #AccheDin!

Index

As on 31.12.2013

As on 31.12.2014

% Change

#BSE100

6327

8369

32.27

#BSE200

2530

3428

35.49

#BSE500

7828

10722

36.97

#Sensex

21171

27499

29.89

#Bankex

13001

21458

65.05

#BSEAuto

11569

18631

61.00

#DOWJones

16577

17984

(30.12.14)

8.49

We were Absolutely Right on two counts in 2014. Firstly, in the beginning of the year 2014, we had predicted a Sensex on 28630 – 30006 (refer old articles under Category: MarketFastFood) as a possibility within 18 months! The recent high which the Sensex hit before correcting was a tad above 28630! Bingo!

Secondly, the top sector which we predicted was the #Banking, it has delivered 65% in last one year! Now, better keep in mind that we are not God and hence, not necessary that 2015 will go down the history as we predict! Better consult your Financial Adviser before taking any further steps! Standard Disclaimer J

Enough of #Modi rally! It’s all over! The market will move further only on Modi’s Actions! If the action goes missing the market will surely get punctured! The honeymoon is over. The government is fully aware of it, and that’s the reason we are finally seeing action on the economic front!

The opposition may call it Ordinance Terror! Doesn’t matter until it’s going to do good to the country. If we are serious in attracting investments into the country, we have to change some rules which are acting as big speed breakers. Not to forget, whichever party is in opposition, they have to oppose! Their job is to come to power, but as common citizens we need to support what is good for the nation! Opposition forgets that when they were in power, they tried to bring an ordinance just a week before a politician was about to be sentenced in a corruption case, just to protect him!

The earlier government did a very good job of bringing the One Person Company and the LLP concept in the Companies Bill’2013. But that alone could not ease the difficulty of doing business in our country. Hence, amendments are required. A decade has passed without achieving much! Many careers have been lost or slowed down due to bad policies, thus we require a big change and big shift in our attitude.

So are we in the right direction? The initial steps taken by the government says so. They have been slow and steady which is actually good for the situation. The global situation remains critical. There are problems across and thus the risk of sudden redemptions, always stay. Don’t expect market to be as stable as in 2014. Volatility has already set in. Though we may do well in 2015, the ride should be roller coaster one! Such rides keeps away non serious investors from market.

In case we fall, the Sensex should find the best support in the range of 25500 – 25000. And the worst case scenario may take us to the levels of 24700 – 24300. In case of such drops on the index, the opportunity should be blindly used to buy quality stocks, if you can remain invested for next 3 – 4 yrs! If you can control your fear and invest on such occasions, you would laugh your way to the bank! The extra amounts which you invest on such occasions can always be withdrawn later and let the profits alone ride the market.

The Indian Basket of Crude is trading below the levels of $53 a Barrel right now (31.12.14 19:44 Hrs), what other news can be a better news for country like ours apart from having a majority government? The crude may shake many economies but will benefit ours! We are here to make money and hence if it’s going to benefit our market so be it! If other economies become cheaper in the process, we can travel there and contribute some dollars. J

Hence, volatility will be there, but the trend remains intact and we should move up. Sensex levels of 33600 – 35000 does not look impossible for the year 2015. We first need to break the upper range of the target give in 2014, i.e. 30006, once that is done, we shall revisit the target and modify the same if required! (Sensex Target 2015)

Apart from crude the prices of almost all industrial commodities are trading at all time lows! Bharat is a consumption economy! We will continue to consume more, so cheaper prices will help us by lower capital requirement.

Budget session will be watched closely! This will be the first full year budget. Expectations remain high. The Finance Minister needs to take radical steps like introducing the Gold Bonds which the earlier government failed to introduce! Apart from a radical budget, the government needs to pass the legislations. Let’s hope the smaller opposition parties don’t harm the country for their petty politics.

Economic related sectors should do well. Little homework can help you beat inflation easily with your investments. Sectors like Banking, Engineering, select Infra companies may lead the next rally. As I write this article there are few companies which are hitting the mind, which may double in next 3 – 5 yrs. Finally even the DII’s have got bullish on Indian Markets. They have Nett. Invested after three years!

Invest sensibly and take full advantage of the better future which is likely to arrive soon!

Wish you all a very Happy 2015. Set Goals!

At Investors Service – Always

VIVEK KARWA

Investment Adviser and Wealth Creator

Contact Details: http://vridhi.co.in/contact-us/

***

 

 

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