Financial Planning is a Must to deal with Recession

Most industries across the world are reeling under huge stress due to recession.

The Software and the Technology industry is the worst affected. Expect more Job Losses and Lay-Offs with advancement of Big Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence.

It makes sense to get yourself Financially Prepared before any untoward incident hits you or your family.

The below picture speaks volumes of an employees life in all industries today.

 

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We had posted an article in 2016 related to this and that holds true even today. Many Software Engineers and employees of other industry approached us after reading the article and they are much more confident people today. Click Here to read the article. Tamil Version: Click Here

 

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Aadhar Linking to Investments

It is now mandatory to link your #Aadhar number with your #MutualFund’s and Trading Accounts.

You can choose from the below options:

CAMS: Online Link Physical Form

Karvy: Online Link Physical Form

In case you are choosing the Physical Form option, kindly sign the form and send it to our address along with a copy of Aadhar. Don’t forget to write your mobile number and email behind the Aadhar xerox.

Even if you are not a client of #VRIDHI we will get it processed for you.

Trading Account Clients:

Without any delay kindly send by post or courier ‘Two Self Attested Photocopy of Aadhar’ to the below address immediately:

VRIDHI, 2E Zama Flats, 475/31 Mount Road, (Behind TempleTowers) Nandanam – 600035. Mobile: 9551110505

 

Time to start looking for fresh investments

181012 – In the last article I had mentioned that we have started moving funds into equities in a staggered manner since valuations have started looking fair. Markets post that day have not moved much. We saw a big down day after Dow and Nasdaq fell post the comments of US president. Though the day was down, Indian markets fell much less compared to all other markets.

US markets fell steeply even on Thursday, but Indian markets bucked the trend particularly since crude prices were down. In fact, I on my Facebook profile had mentioned in the morning that things look positive. The day went as expected. You can click the link and join me on FB.

Sensex hit a high of 38990 on 29/8/18 and has closed at 34733 on 12/10/18 a drop of almost 11% while on BSE 500 index hit a high of 15938 on 3/9/18 and closed at 13906 on 12/10/18, a drop of 12.75%

In short, I should say that the correction has been healthy and reiterate that one should start looking at equity investments a bit more seriously now. Though the Sensex and BSE 500 have corrected between 10% and 13% approx., the micro-caps and small caps have been battered out of shape. Many of them may never recover and this cleansing process happens during every deep correction. Even this correction will clean many such companies. PC Jewellers, Gitanjali, Manpasand, Noida Toll, are few examples, the promoters will have to take great efforts to lift them up again.

So what makes me say start investing here on? Please keep in mind that when I say start, it does not mean jump in Monday morning. Markets will still be volatile and hence do the entry and the exit with help of your financial adviser. This page is giving you a broad guidance and not any specific idea on a stock.

Again, So what makes me say start investing here on?

Firstly, FII’s have been sellers in Indian markets till now in India. When do FII’s sell? Generally, they have either sold when they have been themselves facing problems or when they had confidence in valuations in their own country.

Whatever may be the reasons, one thing is historically clear! Whenever investment was made during FII’s dumping, the next two years good money was made. Around 49% of BSE200’s stake is held by the promoters, around 24% is held by the FII’s, around 6.5% is held by Mutual Funds and around 6.5% is held by Banks and Insurance companies. Around 27000 Crs of selling has been done by FII’s till date, which is just single-digit percentage points of their holdings in BSE200.

Five years back had this sort of selling taken place, markets would have tanked much more. This time the interest in markets is much higher and in spite of some SIP’s in Mutual Funds getting cancelled, almost around 6500 Crs of money is flowing into the system month after month and that is cushioning the markets.

Secondly, nothing is wrong with the fundamentals of the Indian economy as made out by certain sections of the society. We have recently entered the Top 5 Economies of the world feat.

What does an economy require to grow? Roads, Rail, Flight and Mobile connectivity, Ports, Waterways? India has been spending tons of money on all these in the last few years! We are set to and bound to grow!

Thirdly, the earnings of Indian companies have finally started growing. We have been waiting for almost 3 years for the corporate earnings to pick up and finally, they have.

What can be the biggest risk to Indian markets?

Crude oil remains the most critical issue. India imports almost 44 Lac barrels of oil per day! That’s huge. Every dollar increase in crude prices burdens us with Rs.44 Lacs x 74 per day! That’s huge! Convert the amount to monthly and yearly, you will be shocked. Crude prices have increased by almost 30 dollars in recent past.

I am not still worried about the crude prices. The world is moving fast towards electric and the prices will remain under pressure. The Indian government is also serious about reducing the use of oil dependence. Even today PM Modi has chaired a meeting regarding this.

Hence, we are somewhere near the bottom on the index. Many stocks may have already made the bottoms. Call your Financial Adviser and start your investments.

Thanks

Vivek Karwa

Have a strong heart in markets

In fact, writing this article after a long gap since we have resorted to Facebook Live videos and YouTube Live videos which most find it easier to listen to. But seeing the recent volatility in the market some investors have been asking for the views which can be read through and hence posting this issue of MarketFastFood and will continue doing it almost every week henceforth. So, stay connect with the VRIDHI website by subscribing for the email alerts and click the link to find all our social media outreach pages: https://vridhi.co.in/2015/05/23/vridhi-connect/

When it comes to stock market, they will always be volatile, ups and downs are part and parcel of markets and an investor must be mentally prepared to ride all the ups and downs in his investing life. That’s why you should not be coming to markets with less that 3-5 years. Yes, expecting to benefit from the volatility can always be expected by applying timing skills to some extent. But that does not mean you will always be successful and hence be prepared to ride the waves at times.

We at VRIDHI during past few months have been suggesting our clients invest in safer avenues and last Friday have started moving those monies to Equity and Equity Mutual Funds in a staggered manner so as to ride the wave upwards as and when it comes. Is this the bottom? Will try to ponder over that below, but yes, we at present have higher levels of safety than what was there few months back.

So what brought the market down this time apart from the high valuations? The market needs a reason to correct and this time the reasons are flowing freely nonstop that has battered market out of shape with many stocks hitting the 2008-2009 lows. Bad situation! Same was the case in 2008-2009 but then those who dared to invest and stay invested made a lot of money later. Hence though bad situation, a smart investor would use this opportunity instead of fearing and running away. Time to look at Stock Investments Seriously!

India was enjoying the Crude Oil price situation, the government was very judicious in using the extra cash which came by way of taxes for paying back the Loans and controlling the fiscal situation. Our bad luck that crude went up and Rupee also depreciated which was negative for the markets.

Then comes the news of IL&FS downgrade and default. Today, let’s focus on this topic alone. IL&FS got downgraded from the A category to below investment grade in one straight shot! Serious issue! A question can be raised even on the rating agencies on why they were sleeping till now. A company which has been enjoying A grade rating for 31 years got downgraded so suddenly catching all investors unaware.

IL&FS defaulting on their payments is not a small issue. With Rs.91000/- Crs of debt, if the company goes bankrupt, it can be India’s Leman Brothers event.

The good part is that the assets of the company are not bad. Most of them can be monetised and that’s why all major shareholders are ready to increase the stake in the company including the foreign shareholder. A Japanese company also has shown interest, and Aditya Birla group and other corporates have expressed interest in buying out the businesses selectively.

Hence, it is a matter of time that the money which was defaulted will be recovered back. Moreover being election year the Government and RBI will not allow such an old institution to go the Leman Brothers way. There are assets available, the issue which has cropped up is Liquidity. You may own 10 Bungalows, but when someone comes to know that you require money urgently, people will offer less than the market rates! Hence once the large shareholders pump in money and the liquidity problem dries up, sanity would return.

Hence, don’t panic, valuations this time are cheap in select Mid and Small Cap companies. The timing can make you good money, don’t fall prey to people who say buy and forget. Even IL&FS required tracking!

You can call us at VRIDHI anytime! https://vridhi.co.in/contact-us/

Thanks

Vivek Karwa

Look Beyond Fuel Prices

Over last few weeks we have see lot of hue and cry by ‘vested’ interests over rising Petrol Prices and Diesel Prices. The fact is that, the fuel prices may be on the higher side, but the expenses in the common man’s kitchen have been considerably under control.

Our Chief Financial Advisor Mr. Vivek Karwa, keeps mentioning this: ‘Good Economics is Bad Politics and Good Politics means Bad Economics’ Thankfully the government is adopting Good Economics instead of falsely pleasing people.

Read from the below table with an ‘Open Mind’

For Investors Budget is a Non Event

Most investors (consider it’s you and we are writing this for you) suffer on one thing… You all plan for their life goals which are anywhere between 5 to 35 years away but start focusing on events which may or may not affect their investments in short term.

We at VRIDHI regularly plan for Long Term Life Goals of people, and then ask You to focus on investing in a disciplined manner. You invest for some months and as the fund values start increasing start worrying about silly things like budget and then start calling us. We are not blaming You for this behaviour, after all You are a human being and supposed to be behaving like this..! As Advisors it is our responsibility to unconfuse You, handhold You, solace You, and help you ride the ups and downs without any fear.

When you have an advisor you need not worry what’s going to happen in next few days or months, your advisor will take enough actions to ride the waves appropriately. You just focus on the goals and stop looking at the returns frequently. Not all years are going to be good or bad. Everything averages out in long term and if the advisor is able to create even a 2% – 3% extra over the average, be rest assured you have a great future. Please don’t underestimate this 2% – 3% it can’t be easily created if you try it yourself.

So what made me call Budget2018 as a Silly Thing?

It’s surely not a sweeping statement. Read the article which we posted on New Year Day. (Click Here to read it). We wrote a line… ‘knowing the politics of Mr. Modi, the freebie politics is not present in the blood of Modi like others’

Whole of January we have been hearing people say that the budget may be populist. In a recent interview to a TV channel PM himself made it clear that: it’s a myth that people want freebies and he will only do what is good for the country. So what we posted seems to be on right track and on Feb.1 it may also be proved 100% right.

Hence don’t expect stupid and uneconomic decisions like waiving off 70000+ Crs just to win votes. Yes announcing schemes to benefit Rural and Agri sectors which can lift them up can’t be termed as populist. We expect many schemes, to be announced being the last budget, if you can understand the scheme of things and invest properly, that extra return over and above average will not be a day dream. In the New Year article we said: 2018 will differentiate Men from Boys and will not be an easy year.

Earlier we were feeling that the general elections may be advanced to Dec’18 with elections in Rajasthan – MP – Chattisgarh. Now we are getting convinced that they may happen as scheduled.

Be assured that the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be the Greatest Event on Planet Earth till date, much bigger than Trump winning US elections. 2019 election is going to be by far biggest thing we will see in our life time. The politicians will go to any extent for defeating Modi. Many would stoop to any level to win. With violence erupting in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh, over the movie Padmavati, all these are poll bound states, anyone with common sense can understand that the stage is already being set for 2019 election and the state elections in 2018.

So obviously there would be volatility. Days of Blindly Investing have gone. In 2018 you will need strategies, timely actions and have to target your investments well. If your advisor tells you to remain invested and blindly continue doing SIP in one fund or stock and ride the whole cycle then you don’t require him.

So, stay focused and continue investing. 2018 can be tough only for those who are not aware themselves on why they are investing.

We will continue posting timely articles which can help you to stay course of wealth creation. Follow this website by entering your email id. It can be easily done by logging on to www.VRIDHI.co.in on a desktop.

So continue investing happily and don’t hesitate to ping us or refer us to your loved ones.

Thanks

Vivek Karwa

Must Read for Techies and Doctors: https://vridhi.co.in/2016/03/26/must-read/