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Save Tax – Take Action Now!
The Income Tax provisions gives opportunity to every individual to Save Tax by investing in certain specified products.
We are already in January’2017 and the last day to do this will be 31-3-2017
Don’t wait for the last moment! Your employer may deduct the tax from your salary this month itself.
Save Tax, call VRIDHI today!
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What a year it has been. In the last year article (Click Here to read it) we had said that Sensex may touch 29140 – 29500 and if it breaks successfully then we may test 30800 – 31320. We during the year did test the first range and then the turn of events took us down sharply.
The Sensex closing on 31-12-2015 was 26117 and the close on 30-12-2016 was 26626, meaning just 1.95% over the year. This is less than even a Savings Bank Account! On 26-12-2016 the Sensex close was 25807, meaning negative 1.19% for the whole year till 26-12-16 and then in next four trading sessions, the Sensex rallied and closed higher, talking the whole year return into positive.
If someone forces me to mention and discuss the impact of Just Three Most Important things for 2017, they would be:
1. Interest Rates – Both RBI and Fed rates
2. Currency Replacement (Demonetisation)
I would not like to discuss other usual things and make this article longer to read. Being New Year will try to keep it as crisp as possible.
1. Interest Rates
Remember when FED was decreasing rates, what were people saying? American economy is very weak, it will require many stimulus packages to revive. Rates are coming down and hence market will also come down due to poor economy. And you know what? Market did come down!
Now what discussion are these same people encouraging? Because FED has increased rates and may increase them further, the market has to come down!
Don’t get misled by people who don’t think beyond evening, let alone tomorrow or long term!
FED increasing rates is a sign of US recovering and they are much more confident today. I would be happy if rates are increased in Europe, high hopes but nothing to lose! India should be happy that US is recovering. FED may increase rates by just another 25 points in 2017, that won’t drive away FII’s from India. The small negative will be set off by better performance of the companies.
We are still dependent of FII’s, lets resolve in this year to bring in atleast one new investor!
2. Currency Replacement
Hell lot has been already spoken on this. With more than 85% circulation of high denomination notes in the system, it was need of the hour. Had government not done this now, Indian economy would have collapsed by itself like America did in 2008.
Irony is, those people who were head to toe immersed in various corruption charges are today preaching! As an Indian it is our right and duty to support what is right and what is wrong should be opposed.
As said earlier, hell lot has already been spoken hence let’s not go into the details and let’s come the point straight away. Will this whole exercise reap benefits to the Indian Economy? The answer is a Big Yes!
I totally agree that the process could have been better managed and there are certain problem which the new tax payers, likely to join the system, will face. I will be writing about them to the PM and FM. The public is heard and I ‘am sure actions to ease these problems will also be taken up.
Hence be ready to see increase in the digital economy and by March’2017 we all would have forgotten the currency ban! PM has announced certain sops yesterday, take this as precursor to the Union Budget. This will be the most important budget of the govt which try to ignite confidence in the economy.
The day GST was passed, I had posted on facebook that it will not be implemented from 1-4-2017 and looks like the prediction would come true.
The impact of demonetisation will fully settle by March and once GST comes into force from August (hopefully) will cause another ‘shake’ in the markets, but for good.
Hence what we expect is, with Demonetisation+GST+Digital Economy, the numbers will start looking very interesting. All these put together we can term them as mother of all reforms which India has ever seen.
The end result would be that: Economy will pick pace, Companies will start performing and the Earnings Growth will start showing up. By the time you realise that earnings have picked up the market would have already rallied!
Hence use 2017 as the year of Investment Opportunities. We expect Sensex to test our second target of 30800 – 31320 this year if things go as expected. If the upcoming state elections results add up to the ruling party’s Rajya Sabha tally, the market will pick further pace. They need not form govt, adding up RS numbers itself will be big positive.
2017 will be volatile and will give both Investment and Trading opportunities. It’s up to you how you use them. Stay connected with us on Social Media: Click Here
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Resolve to choose #VRIDHI for your Financial VRIDHI this year.
It gives us great pleasure in Inviting you for the Sensex’2017 program.
Do call up and register in advance.
There is No Registration Fees. Come and benefit.
To all #VRIDHI clients
MSEFSL is in the process of shifting DP operations to IL&FS. You would have received a letter informing about the same.
There won’t be any disturbance in the operations during this period, Hence You Can Ignore the Letter.
Lot of water has flown under the #DeMonetisation bridge since our last article. Standing at the bank ATMs became order of the day since the announcement, and almost for a fortnight since 10-11-2016, almost looked like the woes of people would never end. Thankfully the situation is much under control now, and the cash, and the change is available at most places. Certain rural areas are still facing problems but they also would not last long either.
Whatever the problems, the public support has been amazing till now. Every honest tax payer, poor person and the middle class is happy with the decision. Need proof?
– In spite of such hardships people were seen standing in queues without any problem. They knew it will benefit them in long term.
– Political parties wanted riots to happen, SC warned of riots but none happened!
– The Bharat Bandh called by those parties supporting Black Money was ruthlessly rejected by people.
Yes some politicians have been badly affected. Just assume that the Decibel of Noise they make is equally proportional to the amount of Black Money they have lost.
Yes, I totally agree that the implementation could have been better so that the woes of people could have been a bit less, but these people shouting for poor people are only shooting from their shoulders for their own black money. None of them are actually interested for our welfare.
For this size of operation and for the guts shown by the government, we need give them some room for mistakes. Anyway almost everything is settled now.
In our previous article we had said that we should find a good support around 26300 which was tested the next trading day after demonetisation announcement. Later on with the fear of slowing GDP and FII selling, we again tested the range for good amount of time and recovered back sharply.
We maintain that any testing of recent lows of around 26000 will provide a good investing opportunity. The valuations will be fair in this area and should not be missed.
We also believe that the impact of demonetisation will not be too huge on the GDP. Any number above 7% will bring back the FII’s with a vengeance and the markets would remain stable.
Yesterday in an election rally in Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said this:
Rich people are using the Jan Dhan accounts to deposit their Black Money. They are remembering the poor now.
He further said: I request you not to withdraw this money and give it back. If they ask for the money, tell them you will inform about this to the authorities. If they threaten you, ask for the proof that the money is theirs and give me that proof.
He further added: There are few ideas running in my mind, I’am checking if there is any possibility that these people are prosecuted and the money is left for you to use!
Though he has not promised, the announcement will send shivers in the opposition. Though he has not promised, it would be big move to let the money remain in the hands of Jan Dhan account holders who are by default below BPL.
Now, no one knows if this would be done or not, no idea if its legal, and if it is done how much money will the govt allow these accounts to keep and how much they may seize back.
I’am of the opinion that any such move by PM Modi may be will be Inappropriate, Unethical and Morally Incorrect, since it will be kind of Legal Bribery of the voters. But PM Modi will be Politically Cent Percent correct! And this will make him Morally Correct too, How?
– Loan waivers, Freebies and other Electoral benefits are not new to this country. Hence helping the poor alone in this way, will not be morally incorrect! Remember Jan Dhan account holders are poor people!
– Modi never said he will deposit 15 Lac in all accounts. But morally corrupt politicians always spread this narrative to attack him falsely. Hence now, if he ends up depositing this money, these people will have to praise him else face the wrath of people.
You must be wondering why am I talking about this.
As an Investor and Investment Adviser, I see this as a big boost to Indian Economy, just like how we saw the 7th Pay Commission.
‘The money deposited by every individual in their bank account now will be available to invest or spend in the formal economy. The money in the Jan Dhan Accounts, if not taken back fully, will also be spent in the formal economy. This will boost the company balance sheets.’ Hence good for the Stock Markets!
Hence Investors now need to look at the Long Term Picture. This will benefit our country and our future generations in big way. Should not we dream to see our economy compete with mighty China?
Don’t say ‘In the Long Term we all are Dead’, if we have such sadist attitude, none of us will think well for our future generations! It is up to us, if we want to remain selfish or make the world better for everybody. We are there or not, our country will be there eternally.
Interest Rates may be cut in the coming week by the RBI. Fed rate hike is expected in mid December. Though I feel the chances of Fed Rate hike is just 50:50, the market will remain Cautious and Volatile until then.
Hence remain Bullish. Be very Stock Specific. In 2018 you will appreciate that I told you this today! Take help of your Financial Adviser and, as said in our Diwali post, we would charge just 25% of our regular fee for our Armed Forces. Please inform them about this.
*The above are Vivek Karwa’s personal views. Feel free to contact us on the below details.
Thanks and Regards
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