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*Don’t read the above articles in case you Don’t Love your Money.
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We at VRIDHI wish you all a Very Happy Deepavali, may the Samvat 2074 bring in more prosperity and India emerges stronger.
In the previous MarketFastFood article we had mentioned that Investors think markets can only go up, meaning they are currently thinking that markets cannot come down. You can read the article by clicking here. Fact of the matter is, within few days of posting that article, the markets did correct by almost 4-5% and further as mentioned in the article again, market also recovered very fast and we all know where it is today. We are hovering at around 32600 today.
Performance wise, last Diwali to this Diwali has been splendid. Diwali last year was on 30-10-2016 and the Sensex was at 27900 approx. and today it is at 32584.
Very soon after Diwali last year, the government announced Remonetisation of Rs.500/- and Rs.1000/- notes on 8-Nov.
The political scenario post Nov-8 has been too hot with opposition trying to criticise the move. Fact is, they themselves do not know if it’s needed for the country or not. Any person with little common sense would know that when around 85% of the currency in circulation was of high value, and further 85% of that high value never entered any bank account is enough proof that most was in black.
Ask this to any Economist, Fund Manager or an Analyst and they would confirm this. Don’t think why our former PM opposed it, he needs to remain in good books of his leaders, period. Black money in system leads to high inflation in real assets and that’s why Real Estate became unaffordable to Indians.
Remonetisation was needed to formalise the economy and remove the mess of high value currency. We feel the Rs.2000/- notes won’t stay for long. Further Remonetisation was also required before the roll out of GST.
The only disappointment was that 99% notes came back. Many thought a lakh crore may not come back. But then thinking in hindsight, why should one throw away his money particularly when a declaration scheme was also announced. Post that, we have seen frequent raids, investigations, clampdown on shell companies etc etc. All these are by-products of Remonetisation.
Now the GST, Congress tried it hard to roll it since they knew it is going to benefit the country in long term and hence take the credit for it. But they failed to convince their own CMs and allies and hence failed. The present government will get the credit after 12-18 months and until then many people will continue cursing it and many optimists like me are hopeful that the present confusion will be a history soon.
When VAT was rolled out we saw similar pattern. GST is much bigger and hence more teething trouble. They naysayers, the pessimists will rejoice on one or two bad economic numbers but take it from me the country will benefit over long term. GST expects people to do business legally and those used to without bill business are shouting the most. Country is changing, instead of crying, change your business model else you will be wiped off.
Hence we need to ignore the initial teething problems and only then you can be a partner in the countries progress.
You can call 99% cash coming back into the bank as positive too. All this money is now legally getting invested in Financial Products. Earlier people used to avoid since it was all cash, now having ‘adjusted’ the amounts they are getting channelized. With falling interest rates and real estate prices under check due to remonetisation and other factors, people are choosing Equity Markets and Mutual Funds.
Are the valuations costly? No Brainer question, they valuations are sky high. Hence you need to be cautious and invest only with assistance of a Financial Planner.
Market is giving opportunity to all type of investors. Fixed Deposit investors can get better returns with reasonable amount of safety through proper planning. Long Term investors can spot value buys.
Let the pessimists continue with their negativity, just believe in India story and you would not regret. Once again, wishing you all a Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year.
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VIVEK KARWA, CFPCM
Financial Planner & Wealth Creator
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There is a saying: Bull markets can climb the wall of worry. That’s exactly what is playing out in the Indian markets right now. The Sensex seems disinclined for a pause, which does not mean it’s immune to surprises. The investors, as usual are ignoring the dark side of dipping their hands into rich valuations. Many of them are new to the galleries, driven to the ring due to invisible avenues of alternate investments.
The Fixed Deposit rates are at the lowest point and are expected to move further southwards. The appetite for Real Estate has withered away along with the high value denominating notes. Gold is just not willing to wink. Ignore the temporary craze due of Kim. These factors are driving even a newbie to the Exchanges assuming that this money making machine would never go for a maintenance halt.
After reading the above you may declare that I Am forecasting hell to fall loose, no I Am just cautioning the investors not to go on rampage. Keep in conscious that the higher you buy the lower tends to be the returns with high stakes. Hence we should welcome if market decides to cleanse some froth before the next move.
Valuations of most mid and small cap companies are running high. The flush of liquidity is helping them sustain. But as I said before, I Am not advocating a sell. But a churn in your current portfolio by reducing the overall standard deviation can buy you insurance against any rude shocks.
Can rude shocks strike? Yes there are many probable events, and in case such things happen, we would see value buying emerge. Not just Indian markets, the global indexes are performing well. Hence look at sectors and companies which are seeing order book build-up right now, but are also out of market flavour.
Most of us must be thinking that, on ground nothing seems to be happening. Markets are much smarter than all of us. They see what is coming and not what is. One of the examples of this is in the Global PMI numbers. Have a look:
Most developed nations are showing or have started showing dark patches of green. Most nations in the emerging markets section have also started showing patches of yellow and green, a welcome shift from the red ones. The valuations in the current market are not uniform, one can identify underdogs even now. Don’t risk buying stocks without an advisors assistance. People tend to buy stocks and invest in Mutual Funds on their own without any clue when to jump out of them.
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Pink Slips and Lay Offs in the Technology Sector is a common phenomenon now-a-days. Most people are terminated at the shortest notice period.
Majority of the people are not Financially Planned to face such situations.
Below is the Audio of a conversation between the HR and an Employee of a Technology company. Hear it and THINK if can you handle such situation , if you were in his place. If you can’t handle… call VRIDHI now!
Click Here for the Audio.
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Also read this: https://vridhi.co.in/2016/03/26/must-read/
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